油价突破60美元 无视经济衰退Oil Tops $60, Defying Recession

原油价格周二早盘一度突破每桶60美元关口，市场在全球衰退之中意外掀起一波石油热。

消费者和工业此前将油价下跌视为当前经济下滑时期为数不多的一个亮点，油价不断上升将给他们带来打击。不过，每桶60美元的油价也能够给石油公司的利润带来充分提振，使这些公司得以避免大幅削减开采支出；许多专家警告说，削减支出可能会导致石油需求回升时油价急剧飙升。

埃克森公司的一辆油罐车在给加油站输油随着投资者纷纷舍弃现金而投资原油等硬资产，最近几周投资者对油价上涨起了推波助澜作用，主要是因为他们预计经济即将复苏以及美元将会走软，因而愿意承担更多风险。纽约商交所周二盘中，原油期货一度突破每桶60美元，为去年11月以来首次，收盘回落至每桶58.85美元，上涨35美分。自今年2月触及每桶略低于34美元的底部后，油价已经累计回升了73%。

即便在美国成品油需求跌至十年来最低水平的情况下，油价也在不断上涨。尽管美国消费者和工业迟疑不愿增加能源消费，但中国的石油需求依然旺盛。中国周二公布了接近历史最高规模的石油进口数据，表明中国政府的大规模经济刺激举措正在重振石油消费。中国4月份的石油进口较上年同期增长近14%。当月中国汽车销量创出历史新高。

新兴市场的旺盛石油需求是几年前油价飙升的主要原因，推动油价在2005年中首次突破每桶60美元大关。中国石油需求的迅猛增长，为后来油价和石油公司利润连创新高打下了基础。预计亚洲需求会继续对油价产生重大影响，因为美国和欧洲能源使用效率的提高以及两地对可再生能源的重视将抑制它们的石油需求。

经济咨询公司CRA International的副总裁罗斯(Chris Ross)说，中国和印度有25亿人正在不断达到中产阶级消费水平，而全球成熟油田的产量却在不断减少。这些因素综合起来，将为油价的进一步走强打下相当坚实的基础。

随着油价迅速回升至每桶60美元水平，市场担心不断上涨的油价会延缓经济复苏的步伐。摩根大通(J. P. Morgan)分析师近期表示，油价每上涨10美元，美国消费者和工业每个月就会遭受55亿美元的损失；在当前经济状况动荡的情况下，（不断上升的油价）可能是个额外打击。

不过，正因为当前原油价格的反弹，当美国和其他发达国家的原油需求出现回升时，油价才可能不致出现暴涨。去年油价一路飙升至每桶145美元，到目前为止的油价还远远不及这个水平。当前的油价使一些能源公司有理由在目前相对短暂的价格低迷期内继续开采，而这会降低未来出现供应短缺的可能。虽然最近几个季度利润出现下滑，但埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Co.)和荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司(Royal Dutch Shell Plc)等一些行业巨头还是维持了规模达数十亿美元的资本支出预算。

大多数能源公司都认为，60美元/桶的油价是个不错的起点，可以保证绝大部分新的生产项目能够赢利。事实上，英国石油公司(BP PLC)的首席执行长唐熙华(Tony Hayward)不久前就曾表示，55美元的油价足以保本，尤其在成本不断降低的情况下。

IHS剑桥能源研究会(IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates)主席尤金(Daniel Yergin)说，石油厂商看起来正获得“能力和信心”，在新的产能和炼油厂上维持稳定的资本投入。这应当有助于避免价格急剧波动给经济造成破坏。

尤金说，人们已经忘记，将我们引入本轮大衰退的因素之一就是过高的油价。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的崩溃并没有对底特律汽车三巨头形成重大打击。油价飞涨才是让汽车三巨头遭受沉重打击的原因所在。

石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称：欧佩克)本月晚些时候将在维也纳开会，预计欧佩克将不会采取任何扰乱当前油价的行动。虽然当前油价仍低于欧佩克最重要成员国沙特阿拉伯设立的75美元/桶的目标水平，但大多数观察人士相信该组织对于让油价过快上涨也会心存谨慎，担心那样会对经济复苏形成危害。

一些行业分析师担心油价可能崩溃，他们指出，全球最大原油市场美国的需求尚未恢复，原油存货不断增加。能源市场每日分析报告Schork Report的出版人施洛克(Stephen Schork)说，我觉得在当前经济形势下，60美元的油价没什么意义。

美国政府的数据显示，美国汽油消耗量较上年同期下降4%。在截至5月1日的一周中，美国石油存货量增加了1,000万桶，达到1.8万亿桶，为1990年以来的最高水平。天然气存货量比上年同期增加了34%。

花旗集团(Citigroup)能源分析师埃文斯(Tim Evans)说，市场表现得就好像经济基本面发生了极大的转变。但他表示，这种情况很大程度上是因为交易员们仅凭经济好转的一点点蛛丝马迹就开始买进。他警告说，原油价格可能跌回接近40美元/桶的水平。

不过，油价最近一段时间在美国经济继续萧条的情况下出现了回升，这让许多人松了口气。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师上周说，我们原本预计当前仍然疲弱的经济基本面会拖累油价，但这种情况根本没有出现。

Crude oil prices briefly topped $60 a barrel early Tuesday, riding an unexpected wave of enthusiasm for the fuel in the midst of global recession.

The rising price will pinch consumers and industries that had found lower oil prices one of the few bright spots in the economic downturn. But $60 oil also could boost oil company profits enough to avoid deep cuts in spending on production -- cutbacks that many experts have warned could set up a jarring price spike when demand recovers.

Investors helped drive up oil prices in recent weeks, pulling their money out of cash and putting it into hard assets such as crude oil as they anticipated imminent economic recovery and a weaker dollar -- and were willing to stomach more risk. Oil futures briefly topped $60 a barrel in trading Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange for the first time since November, before falling back to close at $58.85, up 35 cents. Oil prices are up 73% since bottoming out at just under $34 in February.

Oil prices are rising even as U.S. demand for petroleum products has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. But while U.S. drivers and industries have been slow to increase energy consumption, Chinese oil demand is strong. On Tuesday, China reported near-record volumes of oil imports, indicating that an aggressive economic-stimulus effort by the Chinese government is reviving consumption. April imports were up nearly 14% from a year ago. Chinese car sales last month set a new record.

The thirst for oil from emerging markets was a prime reason prices surged several years ago, breaking through $60 a barrel for the first time in mid-2005. Rapid growth in Chinese demand laid the groundwork for a period of record-breaking prices and profits. Asian demand is expected to continue to have a big impact on prices, as any rebound in consumption in the U.S. and Europe is tempered by increased energy efficiency and an emphasis on renewable fuels.

There are 2.5 billion people in China and India rising to the level of middle-class consumers, and there's declining production in the world's maturing oil fields, noted Chris Ross, a vice president of economic consultant CRA International. 'You put that together and you have the pretty serious foundation for a more robust price environment,' he said.

Oil's rapid return to $60 has sparked concern that rising prices could slow an economic recovery. Noting that a $10 a barrel rise in oil prices translates into a $5.5 billion monthly hit to U.S. consumers and industry, J. P. Morgan analysts recently said that 'in the current fragile economic state, [rising oil prices] may be an unnecessary shock.'

Still, the current rally in crude prices, so far a shadow of last year's race to $145 a barrel, might defuse the potential for a much more dramatic price spike when oil demand returns in the U.S. and other industrialized economies. Current prices should bolster some energy companies' decisions to continue drilling through the relatively brief period of low prices, limiting the possibility of a future supply crunch. Industry behemoths such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC have maintained their multibillion-dollar capital budgets, despite falling profits in recent quarters.

Most energy companies consider a price of $60 a barrel a generous threshold for ensuring most new production projects are profitable. Indeed, Tony Hayward, the chief executive of BP PLC, recently said $55 was enough to break even, especially as costs are falling.

Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said oil producers appear to be gaining 'both the capability and confidence' to maintain a steady stream of capital investments in new production and refining. That should help avoid the economic damage of severe price swings.

'People have forgotten that one of the factors that led us into this deep recession was the impact of very high oil prices. Detroit was not knocked on its back by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Detroit was knocked on its back by what happened at the gasoline pump,' Mr. Yergin said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries isn't expected to take any actions to upset current prices when it meets later this month in Vienna. While oil prices remain below the $75 a barrel price targeted by Saudi Arabia, OPEC's dominant member, most observers believe the cartel is wary of letting prices rise too quickly for fear it would imperil an economic recovery.

Some industry analysts worry oil prices could collapse, pointing out that demand for energy in the U.S., the world's largest crude market, has yet to revive, and that inventories are bloated. 'I don't think $60 oil in this economy makes sense,' said Stephen Schork, publisher of the Schork Report, a daily analysis of energy markets.

Gasoline consumption in the U.S. is down 4% from a year ago, according to federal-government statistics. In the week ended May 1, the U.S. added 10 million barrels of oil to its stocks, which at 1.8 trillion barrels are at the highest level since 1990. Natural-gas stocks were 34% higher than the same time last year.

'The market is behaving as if the fundamentals are turning around dramatically,' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citigroup. But much of this is because of traders buying on the slightest signs of improvement, he said. Mr. Evans warned crude oil could fall back to the vicinity of $40 a barrel.

Still, crude's recent ability to shake off the gravitational pull of slumping U.S. demand has caught many off guard. Goldman Sachs analysts said last week that 'our expectations for a pullback in prices on still-weak current fundamentals . . . haven't been realized at all.'

Russell Gold