经济衰退冲击巴菲特公司一季度业绩Recession Weighs on Berkshire Results

巴菲特手拿雪糕步入会场
伯克希尔-哈撒威公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)董事长巴菲特(Warren Buffett)上周六表示，公司一季度营业利润较去年同期小幅下降，因为公司很多业务都受到经济衰退的冲击。

巴菲特在公司年度股东大会上说，一季度实现营业利润17亿美元，较去年同期的19亿美元有所下降。他没有谈到净利润。营业利润不包括投资和衍生品损益。


巴菲特手拿雪糕步入会场伯克希尔-哈撒威公司将于下周公布完整的季度收益报告。

公司每股帐面值一季度降6%，原因主要是公司投资的价值下滑。

伯克希尔-哈撒威截至第一季度末有227亿美元的现金和现金等价物。巴菲特说，一季度结束后的次日，公司为2008年在陶氏化学公司(Dow Chemical Co.)的投资进行了30亿美元的现金支付，这使公司的现金减少到不足200亿美元。

伯克希尔-哈撒威拥有67家非保险类公司，其中很多从事经济敏感型行业，比如零售业、制造业和房地产。

上周六的股东大会时间很长，会上巴菲特谈到公司收益结果，他和长期合作伙伴查理•芒格(Charlie Munger)还回答了股东的提问。巴菲特一开始就回答了令人非常期待的一个问题：他对穆迪投资服务(Moody's Investors Service)有何看法？这家公司曾对数十亿美元的抵押贷款证券给出了AAA评级，而这些证券的价值随后出现了缩水，伯克希尔-哈撒威在该公司有很大的持股。

巴菲特的回答很简单，这也是他一贯的风格。他说，所有的人都犯了同样的错误，认为房价会永无止境地上涨。巴菲特说，基本上，四、五年前，几乎每个美国人脑袋里都是这么想的，无论是正式的还是怎样，他们都认为房价不可能大幅下跌。他随后又说，产生这种想法既是因为愚蠢，也是从众心理使然。

巴菲特上周六说，除保险业务和受监管的公用事业领域业务，伯克希尔-哈撒威的其他业务一季度大都遭受了打击。

他说，我们幸好从事了保险和公用事业。

巴菲特说，公司保险业务一季度的承保利润较去年同期略有上升。

他还说，一季度公用事业收益较去年同期有所下滑。

巴菲特说，原因主要是伯克希尔-哈撒威对公司持有的Constellation Energy股票实行了按市值计价，以及为与10年前收购MidAmerican有关的自愿离职补偿进行了最后一笔付款。

他说，其他所有业务一季度基本上都出现了下滑，我们会继续在保险和公用事业上有出色的业绩，不过在其他业务上不会很好。

他还警告说，伯克希尔-哈撒威承销的一种信贷衍生品近几个月价值进一步缩水。

这些衍生品的合约规定，当一批被列入好几个高收益（即垃圾）指数的公司发生亏损时，伯克希尔-哈撒威需要履行其付款义务。这类衍生品标准的合约期限为5年，作为衍生品标的的公司为100家，不过伯克希尔-哈撒威所投资这类衍生品的平均期限现在不足3年。

伯克希尔-哈撒威2008年为这些信贷衍生品支付了9,700万美元。不过巴菲特在2月底致股东的信中警告说，由于破产事件频发，损失急剧上升。

他上周六说，自公司年报出炉以来，这些衍生品的情况更糟了。

他说，这些信贷衍生品的潜在及预计损失体现在了伯克希尔-哈撒威第一季度的收益报告中。
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s first-quarter operating profit fell slightly from a year ago as many of the company's businesses suffered from the recession, Chairman Warren Buffett said Saturday.

Berkshire generated first-quarter operating earnings of $1.7 billion, down from $1.9 billion a year earlier, Mr. Buffett said at the company's annual shareholders meeting. Operating earnings exclude investment and derivative gains and losses. He didn't mention net income.

Berkshire is due to report full quarterly results next week.

Book value per share declined 6% in the latest quarter, mostly because of a decline in the value of Berkshire's investments.

Berkshire ended the quarter with $22.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents. A $3 billion cash disbursement for its 2008 investment in Dow Chemical Co. made a day after the first quarter closed has left the company with less than $20 billion in cash, Mr. Buffett said.

Berkshire owns 67 noninsurance operating companies and many of these businesses are in economically sensitive industries such as retailing, manufacturing and real estate.

Mr. Buffett's remarks on the company's results came during a long session with shareholders, in which he and longtime partner Charlie Munger answered shareholder questions. Mr. Buffett fielded one of the more anticipated questions of the meeting early on: What is his opinion of Moody's Investors Service, which rated billions in mortgage securities triple A that subsequently lost value, and is a large holding of Berkshire?

Mr. Buffett's answer was characteristically simple. Everyone made the same mistake: Housing prices would continue to increase forever. 'Basically, four or five years ago, virtually everybody in the country had this model in their heads, formal or otherwise, that house prices could not fall significantly,' he said, later adding that 'it was stupidity and the fact that everyone else was doing it.'

Many Businesses Suffer

Mr. Buffett said Saturday that most of Berkshire's businesses outside of insurance and the regulated utility industry suffered during the first quarter.

'We're lucky to be in the insurance and utilities businesses,' Mr. Buffett said.

Berkshire's insurance businesses generated first-quarter underwriting profit that was 'a little larger' than during the same period a year earlier, Mr. Buffett reported.

Reported first-quarter earnings from Berkshire's utilities business declined 'somewhat' versus a year earlier, he added.

The decline was mainly from marking the value of Berkshire's holdings of Constellation Energy shares to market and a final payment the company made to buyout options related to its acquisition of MidAmerican a decade ago, Mr. Buffett reported.

'All of the other businesses are basically down' during the first quarter, Mr. Buffett said. 'We will continue to do quite well in our insurance and utility operations. We won't do well in other operations.'

Mr. Buffett also warned that one type of credit derivative written by Berkshire has deteriorated in recent months.

These derivatives require Berkshire to pay when losses occur at companies that are included in several high-yield, or junk, indexes. The standard contract runs for five years and is tied to 100 companies, although the average life of Berkshire's contracts are now less than three years.

Berkshire made $97 million in payments in these credit derivatives in 2008. But Mr. Buffett warned in his latest shareholder letter in late February that losses have accelerated sharply amid a rash of bankruptcies.

Those derivatives have 'turned worse since I wrote the annual report,' Mr. Buffett said Saturday.

The potential and expected losses from these credit derivatives were reflected in Berkshire's first-quarter results, Mr. Buffett said.

ALISTAIR BARR / SCOTT PATTERSON

巴菲特答股东问
巴菲特谈保险

当有人问，伯克希尔-哈撒威公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)旗下规模庞大的保险业务可能出现的最差情况时，巴菲特(Warren Buffett)回答说：国有化。

他说，如果通货膨胀大幅上升，保单价格飙升，政府国有化保险业的压力可能会增大。人们怒气冲天时，政治家们会作出反应。他还说，发生这种事的可能性微乎其微。不过他也指出了社会保障的例子。社会保障是国有化年金的一种形式。

巴菲特谈房市

巴菲特说，几个月来大家看到房屋市场的买卖活动确实有了起色，不过房价还很低。他引用伯克希尔-哈撒威旗下房地产经纪公司HomeServices of America Inc.的数据作为例证。该公司是美国最大的房地产经纪公司之一。

巴菲特说，在加州，中低档价格房屋（在75万美元以下）的销量上升，不过销售价格并没有出现反弹。他说，我们看到在中低价格市场，在价格大幅下跌后的水平上，形势趋于稳定。

巴菲特谈穆迪

有人问巴菲特对穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service Inc.)有何看法。这家信用评级公司曾对数十亿美元的抵押贷款证券给出了AAA评级，而这些证券的价值随后出现了缩水；伯克希尔-哈撒威持有穆迪20.4%的股份。

巴菲特回答说，基本上，四到五年前，几乎每个美国人脑袋里都是这么想的，无论是正式的还是怎样，他们都认为房价不可能大幅下跌。他随后又说，产生这种想法既是因为愚蠢，也是从众心理使然。

他说，如果当初穆迪开始对住房房地产给出负面看法，那么它早就被拖到国会面前作证，解释下为什么要用悲观评级打击美国经济。他说，他们犯了一个严重错误，美国公众也犯了一个严重错误。

记者无法联系到穆迪的代表发表置评。

巴菲特谈美国国债

在今年的年度大会上，伯克希尔-哈撒威只展出了一张幻灯片。幻灯片上展示了去年12月9日的成交单，显示伯克希尔-哈撒威出售了500万美元的美国国债。这批国债的到期日为今年4月29日，也就是伯克希尔-哈撒威将其出售后的大约4个月。该公司从国债出售中套现5,000,090.70美元。巴菲特说，如果那个买家当时持有现金而没有买国债，那么4月29日的时候他们的收益会比现在多90.70美元。巴菲特还说，国债的负收益显示出去年的形势是多么的动荡。他说，我们可能一辈子都不会再看到这样的事了。

巴菲特和芒格谈数学和理论

巴菲特和查理•芒格(Charlie Munger)明确表示了他们对在金融业使用深奥数学的全然不屑。

巴菲特说，现代投资操作和投行业中有很多错误和愚蠢的做法，你要把那些废话刨除，才是你应该合理希望的目标。对买进进行估值时运用的复杂算法，他说，如果你需要用电脑或是计算器来算，你就不应该买。

芒格说，我所见过的一些最差劲的业务决策都是有关未来预测和折价的。看似更高深的数学加上精确过了头的数据应该对你有所帮助，但却没有。他们在商学院里教授这些知识，因为他们必须找点事做。

巴菲特说，如果你站在正在上商业课的学生面前，说“二鸟在林，不如一鸟在手”，你将不会获得教师职位。更高深的数学可能带来危险，把你带上一条最好不要去 的道路。

芒格谈未来

芒格说，虽然我已经是半截入土的人了，却发现自己对经济的未来越来越感到乐观。

芒格继续说，他看到在解决人类主要技术问题上将出现最后一项突破性进展。

通过利用太阳能，全球各地将会有更多的电力供应。芒格解释说，这将帮助人类把海水变成淡水，消除环境问题。他说，如果有了足够的能源，你就能解决很多其他问题。

Business Musings From Woodstock for Capitalists
Mr. Buffett on Insurance

In response to a question about the worst possible development for Berkshire Hathaway's vast insurance operations, Mr. Buffett responded: nationalization.

If inflation jumped and insurance policies became extremely expensive, pressure could rise on the government to nationalize the insurance industry, he said. 'When people get outraged, politicians respond,' Mr. Buffett said. It's highly unlikely that such a development would happen, he added. But he did note the example of Social Security, which is a form of a nationalized annuity.

Mr. Buffett on Housing

'In the last few months you've seen a real pickup in activity although at much lower prices,' Mr. Buffett said, citing data from Berkshire's real-estate brokerage business, HomeServices of America Inc., which is one of the largest in the U.S.

In California, medium and lower-price homes -- under $750,000 -- have been selling more, though there hasn't been a bounce back in sale prices, Mr. Buffett said. 'We see something close to stability at these much-reduced prices in the medium to lower part of the market.'

Mr. Buffett on Moody's
Mr. Buffett was asked about Moody's Investors Service, which gave a triple-A rating to billions of dollars of mortgage securities that subsequently lost value. Berkshire has a 20.4% stake in the company.

'Basically, four or five years ago, virtually everybody in the country had this model in their heads, formal or otherwise, that house prices could not fall significantly,' Mr. Buffett said. He later added that 'it was stupidity and the fact that everyone else was doing it.'

He said that if Moody's had started to take a negative view on residential real estate, the ratings provider would have been hauled before Congress to testify about why it was hurting the U.S. economy with its bearish ratings. 'They made a huge mistake, and the American people made a huge mistake,' he said.

A Moody's representative couldn't be reached for comment.

Mr. Buffett on Treasurys
Berkshire Hathaway had only one slide at this year's annual meeting. It displayed a Dec. 19 trade ticket showing a Berkshire sale of $5 million of Treasury bills. They were coming due on April 29 this year, roughly four months after Berkshire sold them. Berkshire sold the bills for $5,000,090.70. If that buyer had instead put their money in a mattress, by April 29 they would have been $90.70 better off, he said. Negative yields on Treasury bills show how tumultuous last year was, Mr. Buffett added. 'We may never see that again in our lifetimes,' he noted.

Messrs. Buffett and Munger On Math and Theories
Messrs. Buffett and Munger made clear their complete disdain for the use of higher-order mathematics in finance.

'There is so much that's false and nutty in modern investing practice and modern investment banking, that if you just reduced the nonsense, that's a goal you should reasonably hope for,' Mr. Buffett said. Regarding complex calculations used to value purchases, he said: 'If you need to use a computer or a calculator to make the calculation, you shouldn't buy it.'

Said Mr. Munger: 'Some of the worst business decisions I've ever seen are those with future projections and discounts back. It seems like the higher mathematics with more false precision should help you, but it doesn't. They teach that in business schools because, well, they've got to do something.'

Mr. Buffett said: 'If you stand up in front of a business class and say a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, you won't get tenure....Higher mathematics my be dangerous and lead you down pathways that are better left untrod.'

Mr. Munger on the Future
'As I move close to the edge of death, I find myself getting more cheerful about the economic future,' Mr. Munger said.

Mr. Munger sees 'a final breakthrough that solves the main technical problem of man,' he continued.

By harnessing the power of the sun, electrical power will become more available around the world. That will help humans turn sea water into fresh water and eliminate environmental problems, Mr. Munger explained. 'If you have enough energy you can solve a lot of other problems.'

SCOTT PATTERSON / ALISTAIR BARR