中国大买黄金引发猜想China's gold buy raises eyebrows for all the right reasons

中国上周宣布过去6年来该国黄金储备增长76%时，贵金属市场有足够的理由对此予以关注。

毕竟，作为全球最大的黄金出产国、人口最多的国家、也是第三大经济体，中国一定有充分的理由买进黄金；很多专家说，中国的举动巩固了黄金作为货币资产的地位，显示黄金必将迎来更加光明的未来。

USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals高级金属分析师彼得•格兰特(Peter Grant)说，最重要的是中国自身正在消化全球最大黄金出产国──中国的大部分（就算不是全部）产量，如今他们的意图已经很明确，就是要建立储备资产。

他说，这对黄金的长期前景非常有利。

中国上周宣布，该国黄金储备已经从2003年的600吨增加至1,054吨。

Centennial Precious Metals总裁迈克尔•考萨雷斯(Michael Kosares)说，中国真是名不虚传──它有耐心，长期稳步地朝着目标前进，中国已经走上了金光大道，如今他们希望世界知道这一点。

中国已经成为全球第五大黄金储备国。

中国上周不仅公布了黄金储备的增加。考萨雷斯说，它还请求国际货币基金组织(IMF)将3,217吨黄金储备悉数出售。

中国为何要鼓励出售黄金，毕竟这可能会拉低这种它刚刚大量买进的金属的价格？网络交易公司Agoracom的金属分析师彼得•格兰第奇(Peter Grandich)说，这样中国就能买进更多黄金。该公司面向投资小型股的投资者。

考萨雷斯说，中国向IMF提出的请求，加上上周宣布的黄金储备增加，是意在向金融市场发出一个信号，表明中国把黄金视为整体国际货币方案的一个重要部分，这个方案可能会逐渐发展成为一种体系。

令人印象深刻？

只看黄金储备的话，中国黄金储备的价值令人印象深刻，不过考虑到中国外汇储备的规模，黄金储备就没那么惊人了。

据AlphaProfit Sector Investors的Newsletter编辑山姆•苏巴马廉(Sam Subramanian)说，中国的黄金储备价值约为310亿美元，约占全部外汇储备资产的1.6%，黄金在中国总储备中的比重实际上自2003年以来一直在下降。

考萨雷斯说，为了更好地理解这一点，假如中国要以每盎司1,000美元的价格买进IMF 3,217吨的黄金储备，总价将是1,030亿美元。

他说，中国目前外汇储备约为1.95万亿美元，所以买进全部IMF黄金储备的总价将占中国总储备的5.25%，比重很是微不足道。

VRTrader.com的首席市场策略师马克•莱柏维兹(Mark Leibovit)说，所以整体数据就没有那么令人印象深刻了，黄金市场整体上可能将买进的这部分黄金视为只占中国外汇储备的很少一部分。

他说，如果中国是认真的，它们的需求会推动黄金突破高点，并维持在高位。

黄金期货价格在2008年3月中旬突破每盎司1,030美元，此后金价从这个历史高点出现回调，目前保持在每盎司900美元之上。

但考虑一下这一点：据金银投资公司（Gold and Silver Investments Ltd.）董事总经理奥布莱恩(Mark O'Byrne)说，即使在黄金持有量大幅增加之后，中国持有的黄金占其外汇储备总额的比例仍远低于超过10%的全球平均水平。

鉴于这一点，他说，看起来很有可能中国将继续买进黄金，从而将在很大程度上抵消欧洲央行出售黄金和预计IMF将出售黄金的影响。他还指出，中国黄金协会(China Gold Association)的侯惠民称，中国或许希望将黄金持有总量增加到5,000吨，因此，奥布莱恩说，他们似乎可能会争取至少达到10%左右的国际平均水平，而且从更长时期看，没有理由怀疑他们或许希望像美国一样，成为世界最大的黄金持有国之一。

分析师们说，总而言之，中国的举动显示了该国政府将黄金作为货币对待时对它的价值评估。

南非编辑菲利普(Julian Phillips)在GoldForecaster.com上发表的市场通讯上写道：中国是一个着眼于建立储备的买家，这个事实比它现在持有多少黄金重要得多。

他说，中国认识到了黄金作为储备资产的价值，除此之外我们得不出别的结论。

贵金属零售商Blanchard & Co.副总裁比赫姆(David Beahm)说，得出这一结论之前，市场已经预期，美元几乎可以肯定将失去国际储备货币的地位。

他说，在全世界应对全球经济危机之际，黄金作为唯一一种真正的“硬通货”的价值开始凸显。

但VRTrader.com的莱柏维兹说，各国政府既不希望失去对印钞机的控制，也不想接受金本位那样的制度。也就是说，各国接受金本位的条件是，实施一个将黄金与他们的货币在相当高价位上挂钩的计划。这样做将创造出大量资产，以抵消他们庞大的政府债务。

不过，黄金有可能恢复其支持纸币价值的货币角色。菲利普说，黄金恢复货币角色的意义是巨大的，并将对黄金价值产生积极作用。

的确，莱柏维兹说，没有其他替代方案，问题只是什么时候实现。再来一次金融动荡可能会使黄金恢复货币角色，因为它将导致人们对任何纸币投资不再信任。

但Kitco Bullion Dealers高级分析师纳德勒(Jon Nadler)指出，全世界已挖掘出来的全部黄金在全球财富总额中所占的比重只有0.6%左右，即使金价升到了每盎司10,000美元，它在全球财富总额中占的比例也只有6%。

他说，这不会让它开始成为解决困扰世界的问题的灵丹妙药。

即便如此，像中国这样一个重要的国家应该对其大量储备继续寻求多元化，普通投资者也应该这样。

纳德勒说，只是，进行多元化的时候不要带着投机的念头，认为中国买黄金是黄金下面的导火索正在点燃（将引爆金价）的迹象。他说，这只是买保险……每次买一点点。
The precious-metals market took notice for all the right -- but not-so-obvious -- reasons when China announced last week that it ramped up its gold reserves by 76% in the last six years.

After all, the world's largest producer of gold, which also happens to be the world's most populous nation and third-largest economy, must have a good reason for its purchases -- and quite a few experts said the move solidifies gold's place as a monetary asset, and shows that it's destined for a brighter future.

'The important take-away is that China itself is absorbing the bulk (if not all) of the production of the world's largest producer of gold (also China) with the now confirmed intent of building reserve holdings,' said Peter Grant, a senior metals analyst at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals.

'That is very favorable for the longer-term outlook for gold,' he said.

Last week, China announced that the amount of gold in its reserves has climbed to 1,054 tons from 600 tons in 2003.

'China, true to its reputation for patience and steady, long-term progress toward its goals, has taken the golden path and now they want the world to know about it,' said Michael Kosares, president of Centennial Precious Metals.
The nation has become the fifth-largest individual-country holder of the precious metal.

And it didn't just announce its gold accumulation last week. It also asked the International Monetary Fund to sell its entire 3,217 tons reserve, Kosares points out.

And why would China encourage sales that could potentially depress the price of the gold it just bought a lot of? So it can buy more, said Peter Grandich, a metals writer at Agoracom, an online marketplace for small-cap investors.

The request, combined with the announcement on reserves, 'is intended to deliver a message to the financial markets [that China] sees gold as an important part of the overall international monetary scheme -- a scheme that may evolve to a system in time,' said Kosares.
Impressive?

On a stand-alone basis, the value of China's gold reserves is impressive, but not really so given the size of the nation's foreign-exchange reserve.

China's gold reserves are worth almost $31 billion -- about 1.6% of its total foreign- exchange reserve holdings, and gold as a percent of the country's total reserves has actually declined since 2003, according to Sam Subramanian, editor of AlphaProfit Sector Investors' Newsletter.

To put that into better perspective, if China was to purchase the IMF's reserves of 3,217 tons at a price of $1,000 per ounce, the price would be $103 billion, according to Kosares.

China's current foreign reserves stand at about $1.95 trillion, so the purchase price of all the IMF gold would amount to a 'paltry' 5.25% of China's total reserves, he said.

So the total figures aren't so impressive and the gold market overall probably saw the purchase as a really small amount compared to China's resources, said Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for VRTrader.com.

'If China was serious, their demand could drive gold through the highs and keep it there,' he said.
Gold futures prices touched a record level above $1,030 an ounce in mid-March of 2008. They've pulled back from the all-time high to currently trade above $900.

But consider this: Even after the large increase in gold holdings, China's holdings of gold as a share of total foreign-exchange reserves are well below the world average of over 10%, according to Mark O'Byrne, executive director at Gold and Silver Investments Ltd.

Given that, 'it seems very likely that China will continue buying gold, which would in large measure offset sales by European central banks and expected IMF disposal,' he said.

He also pointed out that Hou Huimin of the China Gold Association said China may want to hold a total of 5,000 tons of gold so 'it seems likely that they will at least seek to replicate the average international gold holding of some 10% [and] even longer term, there is no reason to doubt that they may hope to join the U.S. as one of the largest holders of gold in the world,' said O'Byrne.

Monetary worth

All in all, China's moves reveal the government's assessment of the metal's worth as a currency, analysts said.

'The fact that China is a buyer for reserves is far more important than how much it currently holds,' Julian Phillips, a South-Africa-based editor, wrote in a newsletter published on GoldForecaster.com.

'There is no other conclusion we can reach other than China recognizes its worth as a reserve asset,' he said.

That comes on the heels of expectations that the U.S. dollar is 'virtually guaranteed to, eventually, lose its status as the international reserve currency,' said David Beahm, a vice president at precious metals retailer Blanchard & Co.

'As the world deals with the global economic crisis, the value of gold as the only true 'hard currency' is coming to the fore,' he said.

But governments don't want to lose control of the printing press and don't want a gold standard either, said VRTrader.com's Leibovit. That is, 'unless a plan is underway to peg gold to their currency at a substantially higher price, which would create a huge asset that would act as a counterbalance to their huge national debt,' he said.

Still, it's possible that gold can return to a monetary role of backing up the value of currencies. 'The implications for gold returning to a monetary role are tremendous and gold-price positive,' said Phillips.

Really, 'there is no alternative, but the question is when,' said Leibovit. 'Another financial shock could do it, causing distrust of any paper investment.'

But Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, points out that all of the world's above-ground gold amounts to around 0.6% of total global wealth, so even if gold were at $10,000 per ounce, the metal would only amount to 6% of total global wealth.

'That does not begin to make for a panacea for what ails the world,' he said.
Even so, an important country such as China should continue to seek to diversify its massive holdings, and so should the average investor, he said.
Just don't diversify with the 'disingenuous idea' that this is a 'sign of [a] fuse being lit under gold,' Nadler said. 'It's just insurance being bought .... A little bit at a time.'

Myra P. Saefong