克莱斯勒是美国漫长恶梦的开始 Chrysler - Our Long Nightmare Begins

这是个典型的越理越乱的任务，奥巴马总统应该在为时太晚之前收手。

除了已经投给克莱斯勒(Chrysler)的45亿美元贷款，菲亚特(Fiat)收购克莱斯勒的交易原计划是需要政府再投入30亿美元，但奥巴马现在却要投入60亿美元。

不到两年的时间内，克莱斯勒已经从德国人手中卖给纽约一些投资者，如今又倒手给了意大利人。但对奥巴马来说，克莱斯勒是一个美国标志，是一个传奇的国家资产。因此追加30亿美元又有何妨？

或许一年之后奥巴马就不会这么想了，但到那个时候就真的太晚了。底特律可能会成为奥巴马的越南。

这个类比有点极端？也许吧，但可能差得并不远。

1966年3月，当时的美国总统约翰逊(Lyndon Baines Johnson)承诺美国“现在不会，未来也不会盲目升级”越南战争。但不到一年，美国在越南兵力就增长了一倍以上，此后约翰逊的总统宝座也因此破碎。

你是否看过奥巴马就克莱斯勒召开的新闻发布会？那场发布会有着沉重不祥的气氛。美国总统不应当公开宣称克莱斯勒携手菲亚特很可能会取得成功，也不应该呼吁美国人购买道奇(Dodge)微型车。

这些承诺有失总统身份。它们令奥巴马陷入了越想捞回损失越加剧损失的陷阱。

美国总统和纳税人援助的不是一个处于强盛时期的企业。克莱斯勒破产是有原因──实际上，这家企业有很多破产的理由，从低产量到依赖不良信用用户，再到糟糕的产品组合。

由于此前几位《闲说华尔街》读者指责我不够了解克莱斯勒的产品后，昨天晚上我更仔细地研究了《美国消费者报告》所作的调查，发现情况甚至比我想像的还要糟糕。

《美国消费者报告》写道，在我们对各个车型进行的评比中，很多克莱斯勒车型都排名垫底，目前没有一款车符合我们推荐给消费者的标准。在我们的测试中，即便大多数较新的克莱斯勒车型也表现平庸低劣。

奥巴马将怎样推动美国人买这些汽车？尤其是在未来两年，克莱斯勒需要两年的时间才能制造出菲亚特的产品。

我并不是在诋毁克莱斯勒或是其饱受冲击的员工，他们甚至会承受更多损失，无论克莱斯勒怎么按照《破产法》第11章申请破产保护的结果如何。

我只是指出奥巴马正在自食其言。奥巴马要求美国人作出艰难决定与牺牲。他说，我们只是不能再耗费纳税人的钱来让这家公司维持下去了。

话说的不错。但这就是他正在做的事。为什么要让自己陷入一个复杂拖沓的破产公司救助过程，一个过去三十年濒临倒闭三次的公司？如果总统现在不能对克莱斯勒作出艰难决定，那么一年后当他已经深陷克莱斯勒和其命运之后，他又将怎样作出这一决定？

我认为，奥巴马清楚自己陷的太深。实际上（纯属猜测），我认为这就是他为什么会对将克莱斯勒推向破产保护的“一小部分投机分子”如此愤怒的原因。

奥巴马希望克莱斯勒问题能够迅速解决，重新巩固他的总统地位。但现在这个问题恐怕不会轻易化解。

接下来将是通用汽车(General Motors)，恐怕只会更加棘手。

因此，我们面临着不可避免的未来情景：频频造访底特律，与国会谈判，不满的经销商进行抗议，全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)和菲亚特之间的任何小分歧都会消耗奥巴马越来越多的时间以及纳税人的资金。

而这还不是终结。实际上，随着克莱斯勒按照《破产法》第11章进行破产，我们漫长的国有化恶梦只是刚刚开始。
本文作者Evan Newmark曾在华尔街工作了20余年，目前已远离各大投行、自己在进行股票投资。本栏目文章选自他在Deal Journl上的博客Mean Street。

It's classic mission creep - and President Obama should stop before it's too late.

On top of the $4.5 billion committed to Chrysler, the Fiat deal was originally supposed to require another $3 billion, but now the president is putting up $6 billion.

In less than two years, Chrysler has been passed along from the Germans to some New York 'money men' and now to the Italians. But for President Obama, Chrysler is an 'American icon,' a 'storied' national asset. So what's an extra $3 billion?

The president won't feel the same way a year from now - but by then it really will be too late. Detroit may be his Vietnam.

An extreme analogy? Perhaps. But it may not be far off.

In March 1966, LBJ promised America 'There is not, and will not be, a mindless escalation' in Vietnam. Within a year, troop levels had more than doubled and his Presidency was destroyed.

Did you watch the president's press conference on Chrysler? It had an unhappy, foreboding air. No standing American president should be opining that the Chrysler-Fiat alliance has a 'strong chance of success' or urging Americans to buy Dodge minivans.

These promises are beneath the president's office. And they set Obama up to throw good money after bad.

It's not like the president and the taxpayers are backing a business that's on the cusp of greatness. Chrysler is bankrupt for a reason - in fact, lots of reasons from sub-scale production to a dependence on poor credit customers to a lousy product line-up.

Last night, after being accused by several Mean Street readers of not knowing enough about Chrysler's line-up, I did more research in Consumer Reports. It was even worse than I thought.

Here was CR: 'Many Chrysler vehicles rank at the bottom of our ratings in their categories and none currently meet our requirements for being recommended. Even most newer models have been mediocre in our tests.'

How will the president compel Americans to buy these cars? Especially in the two years it takes for Chrysler to churn out any Fiat originated product?

This isn't to just dump on Chrysler or its long-suffering employees who will suffer even more, regardless of how Chapter 11 plays out.

Rather it's to point out that President Obama is not living up to his own words. The president demands that Americans make 'hard choices' and 'sacrifices'. He says that 'we simply cannot keep this company afloat on an endless supply of tax dollars.'

Nice words. But that's exactly what he's doing. Why get yourself involved in a byzantine, drawn-out bailout of a failed company - that has failed three times in three decades? If the president cannot make the 'hard choice' about Chrysler now, how will he make it a year from now after he's gotten so enmeshed in the company and its fate?

My sense is that Obama knows he is in too deep. In fact - and this is pure speculation - I believe that's why he is so angry with the 'small group of speculators' that drove Chrysler into Chapter 11.

The president wanted the Chrysler problem to go away quickly and resume his presidency. And now it won't just go away.

Next up will be General Motors and that will be even stickier.

And so the inevitable future before us: The site visits to Detroit, the negotiations with Congress, the protests from unhappy dealers and every little spat between the UAW and Fiat will soak up more and more of the president's time and the taxpayer's money.

And it just won't end. In fact, with Chrysler filing for Chapter 11, we're only at the beginning of our long, nationalized nightmare.

Evan Newmark