投资股市宁迟勿早Better Late Than Never?
下个月，众多美国企业将发布令人失望的季度收益报告。4月份也标志着当前这场衰退进入了第17个月，成为自大萧条以来持续时间最长的经济衰退。
然而，很多投资者认为这是黎明前最黑暗的时刻：自3月9日收于近期低点以来，标准普尔500指数已累计上涨21%。典型的看涨人士可以指出更为积极的新屋销售和消费支出数据。与此同时，华盛顿最新推出的不良资产计划至少是份更详细、更“有血有肉”的提议了。
此外，华尔街分析师们终于投降了。据汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)的数据，去年10月，他们曾预测标准普尔500指数成份股公司今年第一季度收益将较上年同期增长26%。如今，他们预测收益会下滑三分之一以上。与此同时，上市公司在收益报告出炉前公布的负面消息与正面消息之比接近四比一。
3月9日的估值看起来很引人注目。标准普尔500指数较历史高点跌了57%，预期市盈率只有11倍。此后，表现最好的类股都是那些在过去一年中受冲击最严重的，特别是金融、材料、工业和非必需消费类股。
金融类股是在对华盛顿最新实施的“休克疗法”做出反应。其他类股存在高度的周期性，它们的上涨显示出投资者对政府经济刺激支出的信心。这种信心在大宗商品市场上也很明显。今年以来铜价上涨31%，原因之一是中国对铜的进口增加。这与中国工业产值低迷的状况不相符，暗示出企业在以低价买进铜并储备起来，而不是在实际消费。
尽管政府采取的措施很重要，但相信刺激计划将导致价格触底则有着很大的风险。今天的干预计划是一项大规模、尚在进行之中的试验。
至少，投资者可以预期市场振荡会持续下去。公司债券市场仍值得质疑，投资级债券和高收益债券的综合息差仍分别为5个和15个百分点左右。
对任何复苏都至关重要的消费者仍面临着问题。每周首次申请失业救济的人数已经连续5周超过60万人。失业率的上升延长了重建家庭财务状况的过程，削弱了刺激计划的成效。据Barclays Capital的数据，净新增信用卡贷款自上世纪70年代以来首次出现负值。
尽管存在风险，某些周期性类股的预期市盈率却出现过快增长。能源类股从不足12倍升至近15倍，材料类股从15倍增至20多倍。非必需消费类股预期市盈率已经超过了20倍，现在进一步触及40倍。增长不及这些强劲的必需消费类股和公共事业类股看似是更好的选择。
担心错失拐点的投资者应该注意美银证券-美林(Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch)的伯恩斯坦(Richard Bernstein)撰写的一份分析报告。在研究了过去10次股市低谷之后，他发现，平均来说，把钱投入美国国债，并且只在股市大涨后6个月而不是大涨之前6个月开始进入股市，这样做能获得更高收益。适当晚一点儿入市依旧是值得的。
Next month, American companies will undergo an unpleasant quarterly earnings confessional. April also will mark the 17th month of this recession, making it the longest since the Great Depression.
Yet many investors think it is darkest before the dawn: Since closing at its recent low point on March 9, the S&P 500-stock index has risen 21%. Proto bulls can point to more positive new-home sales and consumer-spending data. Meanwhile, Washington's latest toxic-asset plan is, at least, a fleshed-out proposal.
Moreover, Wall Street's analysts have finally capitulated. Last October, they forecast a 26% year-on-year increase in S&P 500 first-quarter earnings, according to Thomson Reuters. Today, they project a drop of more than one-third. In parallel, companies' negative preannouncements for the quarter have outpaced positive ones almost four to one.
On March 9, valuations looked compelling. The S&P 500 was 57% off its all-time peak, with the forward price/earnings ratio scraping 11 times. The best-performing sectors since are those that were hammered hardest in the past year, notably financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary.
Financial stocks are responding to Washington's latest shock therapy. The others are highly cyclical, suggesting faith in government-stimulus spending. That is also visible in the commodities markets. Copper is up 31% this year, partly in response to Chinese imports of the metal. This is at odds with weak industrial production in the country, suggesting stockpiling at low prices rather than actual consumption.
While government efforts are vital, trusting stimulus-induced price floors is risky. Today's intervention programs represent a vast, ongoing experiment.
At the least, investors can expect market volatility to continue. Corporate-bond markets remain skeptical, with composite spreads on investment-grade and high-yield debt still at about five percentage points and 15 percentage points, respectively.
Consumers, key to any recovery, still face problems. Weekly initial unemployment claims have been above 600,000 for five weeks. Rising joblessness lengthens the process of rebuilding household finances, blunting stimulus efforts. Net new borrowing on credit cards has turned negative for the first time since the 1970s, according to Barclays Capital.
Despite the risks, forward earnings multiples for certain cyclical sectors have expanded too rapidly. Energy has jumped from under 12 times to almost 15 times; materials from 15 times to over 20. Consumer discretionary, already trading above 20 times, has hit 40. Less-racy consumer staples and utilities stocks look like better bets.
Those investors afraid of missing the turn should note an analysis by Richard Bernstein of Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. Examining 10 prior stock-market troughs, he finds that, on average, keeping your money in Treasurys and only buying into the stock market rally six months after it started earned a higher return than buying in six months prior to the turn. As ever, it pays to be fashionably late.
然而，很多投资者认为这是黎明前最黑暗的时刻：自3月9日收于近期低点以来，标准普尔500指数已累计上涨21%。典型的看涨人士可以指出更为积极的新屋销售和消费支出数据。与此同时，华盛顿最新推出的不良资产计划至少是份更详细、更“有血有肉”的提议了。
此外，华尔街分析师们终于投降了。据汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)的数据，去年10月，他们曾预测标准普尔500指数成份股公司今年第一季度收益将较上年同期增长26%。如今，他们预测收益会下滑三分之一以上。与此同时，上市公司在收益报告出炉前公布的负面消息与正面消息之比接近四比一。
3月9日的估值看起来很引人注目。标准普尔500指数较历史高点跌了57%，预期市盈率只有11倍。此后，表现最好的类股都是那些在过去一年中受冲击最严重的，特别是金融、材料、工业和非必需消费类股。
金融类股是在对华盛顿最新实施的“休克疗法”做出反应。其他类股存在高度的周期性，它们的上涨显示出投资者对政府经济刺激支出的信心。这种信心在大宗商品市场上也很明显。今年以来铜价上涨31%，原因之一是中国对铜的进口增加。这与中国工业产值低迷的状况不相符，暗示出企业在以低价买进铜并储备起来，而不是在实际消费。
尽管政府采取的措施很重要，但相信刺激计划将导致价格触底则有着很大的风险。今天的干预计划是一项大规模、尚在进行之中的试验。
至少，投资者可以预期市场振荡会持续下去。公司债券市场仍值得质疑，投资级债券和高收益债券的综合息差仍分别为5个和15个百分点左右。
对任何复苏都至关重要的消费者仍面临着问题。每周首次申请失业救济的人数已经连续5周超过60万人。失业率的上升延长了重建家庭财务状况的过程，削弱了刺激计划的成效。据Barclays Capital的数据，净新增信用卡贷款自上世纪70年代以来首次出现负值。
尽管存在风险，某些周期性类股的预期市盈率却出现过快增长。能源类股从不足12倍升至近15倍，材料类股从15倍增至20多倍。非必需消费类股预期市盈率已经超过了20倍，现在进一步触及40倍。增长不及这些强劲的必需消费类股和公共事业类股看似是更好的选择。
担心错失拐点的投资者应该注意美银证券-美林(Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch)的伯恩斯坦(Richard Bernstein)撰写的一份分析报告。在研究了过去10次股市低谷之后，他发现，平均来说，把钱投入美国国债，并且只在股市大涨后6个月而不是大涨之前6个月开始进入股市，这样做能获得更高收益。适当晚一点儿入市依旧是值得的。
Next month, American companies will undergo an unpleasant quarterly earnings confessional. April also will mark the 17th month of this recession, making it the longest since the Great Depression.
Yet many investors think it is darkest before the dawn: Since closing at its recent low point on March 9, the S&P 500-stock index has risen 21%. Proto bulls can point to more positive new-home sales and consumer-spending data. Meanwhile, Washington's latest toxic-asset plan is, at least, a fleshed-out proposal.
Moreover, Wall Street's analysts have finally capitulated. Last October, they forecast a 26% year-on-year increase in S&P 500 first-quarter earnings, according to Thomson Reuters. Today, they project a drop of more than one-third. In parallel, companies' negative preannouncements for the quarter have outpaced positive ones almost four to one.
On March 9, valuations looked compelling. The S&P 500 was 57% off its all-time peak, with the forward price/earnings ratio scraping 11 times. The best-performing sectors since are those that were hammered hardest in the past year, notably financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary.
Financial stocks are responding to Washington's latest shock therapy. The others are highly cyclical, suggesting faith in government-stimulus spending. That is also visible in the commodities markets. Copper is up 31% this year, partly in response to Chinese imports of the metal. This is at odds with weak industrial production in the country, suggesting stockpiling at low prices rather than actual consumption.
While government efforts are vital, trusting stimulus-induced price floors is risky. Today's intervention programs represent a vast, ongoing experiment.
At the least, investors can expect market volatility to continue. Corporate-bond markets remain skeptical, with composite spreads on investment-grade and high-yield debt still at about five percentage points and 15 percentage points, respectively.
Consumers, key to any recovery, still face problems. Weekly initial unemployment claims have been above 600,000 for five weeks. Rising joblessness lengthens the process of rebuilding household finances, blunting stimulus efforts. Net new borrowing on credit cards has turned negative for the first time since the 1970s, according to Barclays Capital.
Despite the risks, forward earnings multiples for certain cyclical sectors have expanded too rapidly. Energy has jumped from under 12 times to almost 15 times; materials from 15 times to over 20. Consumer discretionary, already trading above 20 times, has hit 40. Less-racy consumer staples and utilities stocks look like better bets.
Those investors afraid of missing the turn should note an analysis by Richard Bernstein of Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. Examining 10 prior stock-market troughs, he finds that, on average, keeping your money in Treasurys and only buying into the stock market rally six months after it started earned a higher return than buying in six months prior to the turn. As ever, it pays to be fashionably late.
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