中美继续隔洋辩美元The China-Dollar Conundrum
围绕美元国际货币地位的一场隔洋辩论还在继续。周二，美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)反驳了中国央行行长提出的世界需要新的国际储备货币取代美元的主张。著名经济学家、中国央行顾问樊纲在他下榻的香港酒店房间里看了有线电视新闻网(Cable News Network, 简称：CNN)转播的奥巴马讲话，但表示他并不信服。
国际清算银行总经理奈特和樊纲樊纲周三接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，从长远看，如果要避免与美元本位相关的周期性问题，设立新的国际货币当然是必要的。樊纲是国民经济研究所所长，同时也是中国央行货币政策委员会成员，这意味着他的看法对中国政府有一定的影响力。
樊纲将美元说成是一种风险传导机制。他说，当前的危机或许是始于欧美，但正因为美元本位，高杠杆机构的风险才得以蔓延到其他国家。
樊纲认为，这样一来，美国现在就更有责任为了全球经济而对其银行和对冲基金进行更严格监管。他说，下一步应当监控资本流动和杠杆，而这些信息应当向这些机构进行投资活动的国家通报。
樊纲说，国际商品贸易受到了严密监管。因此如果实体市场受到监管，而金融市场却不受监管，那根本就没有意义。
当然，中国本来就擅长密切注意资本流动。中国只允许人民币有限兑换，并严格限制外资投资中国资本市场。声称中国的审慎得到了回报的樊纲说，资本控制对发展中市场来说更有好处。
（后来，在瑞信(Credit Suisse)投资午餐会上发言时，樊纲重申了审慎带来回报的话。听众中的一位批评人士私底下暗自嘲笑。他说，中国多年来一直买进低收益的美国国债，兴高采烈地为美国贸易逆差提供资金。向背负大笔债务的大客户提供低廉的卖方融资，这能算得上多审慎？）
樊纲说，虽然中国很想保持人民币稳定，但还是面临让人民币贬值的压力，这种压力不光来自国内，也来自整个亚洲地区，因为其他亚洲国家货币纷纷走软，令这些国家更具竞争优势。樊纲建议中国不要让人民币兑美元汇率下跌，而应当更多地参考用于确定人民币汇率的一篮子货币中的其他货币。樊纲说，人民币最终应当与其他货币关联，而不仅仅是美元。
樊纲担心美国联邦储备委员会(Fed，简称：美联储)的定量宽松政策会加大美元通胀和贬值的风险，这不光是中国的担忧，也是所有人都担心的问题。他还认为，货币问题会让此前就抱怨中国货币政策的美国国会议员们发出更多抨击中国的言论。他说，将来大家会看到，随着美元贬值，这些参议员又会再次出现。有意思的是，当被问及中国为何选在现在这个时候公开对美元表示意见时，樊纲的兴奋程度似乎达到了顶点。
他说，我们长期以来一直在说美元及美元贬值的风险，我们说过贸易逆差失衡有美国方面的原因。但却无人理会。现在是引起大家注意的时候了。
The pan-Pacific debate over the dollar's standing as a global currency continues. On Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama dismissed suggestions raised by China's central bank governor that the world needs a new international currency that can take the place of the dollar in international reserves. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and advisor to China's central bank, watched Obama on CNN in his Hong Kong hotel room, but says he was hardly convinced.
'Of course' an alternative is necessary 'in the long run, if we want to avoid the cyclical problems associated with the dollar standard,' Fan says in an interview with the Journal on Wednesday. Besides being director of China's National Economic Research Institute, a nongovernment think tank, Fan sits on the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, which means his views carry some weight in Beijing.
Fan describes the dollar as a kind of transmission mechanism for risk. The current crisis, he says, may have begun in the U.S. and Europe, but because of the dollar standard, 'the risk of highly leveraged institutions has spread to other countries.'
The onus therefore is now on the U.S. in particular to better regulate its banks and hedge funds for the sake of the global economy, he believes. Next, Fan says, 'we should monitor capital flows, and monitor leverage, and this information should be reported to the countries where (institutions) are investing.'
International trade in goods is heavily monitored and regulated, says Fan. It therefore makes no sense that 'you have a regulated real market and an unregulated financial market.'
Of course, China is pretty good at keeping a close eye on capital flows. It allows only limited convertibility of its currency, the yuan, and tightly restricts foreign investment in the country's capital markets. Fan, who asserts that 'Chinese prudence has paid off,' says capital controls are 'better for developing markets.'
(Later, speaking at a Credit Suisse investment conference over lunch, Fan reiterated his line about prudence paying off. Privately, one critic in the audience quietly scoffed. China happily financed the U.S. trade deficit by buying low-yielding Treasurys for years, he said. How prudent was it to offer cheap vendor financing to a big customer with a lot of debt?)
Fan says while China is eager to keep its currency stable, there is pressure to let the yuan fall - 'not just domestic pressure, but regional pressure,' as other Asian currencies weaken, making them more competitive. Rather than let the yuan fall against the dollar, he suggests that China should make reference more to the other currencies in the basket it uses to set the yuan's exchange rate. 'Eventually, China's currency should be related to other currencies, not just the dollar,' he says.
Fan worries that the Fed's quantitative easing is raising the risk of dollar inflation and devaluation, which 'is a concern not just for China but for everyone.' He also believes monetary problems will fuel more 'China bashing' in the U.S. from members of Congress that have previously railed against China's currency policies. 'In the future, you will see, when the dollar devalues, these senators will come back,' says Fan. Interestingly, Fan's excitement level seems to peak when he's asked why China is choosing to speak up now about the dollar.
'We have been talking about the risk of the dollar and dollar devaluation for a long time,' he says. 'We have been talking about U.S. causes behind the imbalances in the trade deficit. No one listened. This is a time to get noticed.'
国际清算银行总经理奈特和樊纲樊纲周三接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，从长远看，如果要避免与美元本位相关的周期性问题，设立新的国际货币当然是必要的。樊纲是国民经济研究所所长，同时也是中国央行货币政策委员会成员，这意味着他的看法对中国政府有一定的影响力。
樊纲将美元说成是一种风险传导机制。他说，当前的危机或许是始于欧美，但正因为美元本位，高杠杆机构的风险才得以蔓延到其他国家。
樊纲认为，这样一来，美国现在就更有责任为了全球经济而对其银行和对冲基金进行更严格监管。他说，下一步应当监控资本流动和杠杆，而这些信息应当向这些机构进行投资活动的国家通报。
樊纲说，国际商品贸易受到了严密监管。因此如果实体市场受到监管，而金融市场却不受监管，那根本就没有意义。
当然，中国本来就擅长密切注意资本流动。中国只允许人民币有限兑换，并严格限制外资投资中国资本市场。声称中国的审慎得到了回报的樊纲说，资本控制对发展中市场来说更有好处。
（后来，在瑞信(Credit Suisse)投资午餐会上发言时，樊纲重申了审慎带来回报的话。听众中的一位批评人士私底下暗自嘲笑。他说，中国多年来一直买进低收益的美国国债，兴高采烈地为美国贸易逆差提供资金。向背负大笔债务的大客户提供低廉的卖方融资，这能算得上多审慎？）
樊纲说，虽然中国很想保持人民币稳定，但还是面临让人民币贬值的压力，这种压力不光来自国内，也来自整个亚洲地区，因为其他亚洲国家货币纷纷走软，令这些国家更具竞争优势。樊纲建议中国不要让人民币兑美元汇率下跌，而应当更多地参考用于确定人民币汇率的一篮子货币中的其他货币。樊纲说，人民币最终应当与其他货币关联，而不仅仅是美元。
樊纲担心美国联邦储备委员会(Fed，简称：美联储)的定量宽松政策会加大美元通胀和贬值的风险，这不光是中国的担忧，也是所有人都担心的问题。他还认为，货币问题会让此前就抱怨中国货币政策的美国国会议员们发出更多抨击中国的言论。他说，将来大家会看到，随着美元贬值，这些参议员又会再次出现。有意思的是，当被问及中国为何选在现在这个时候公开对美元表示意见时，樊纲的兴奋程度似乎达到了顶点。
他说，我们长期以来一直在说美元及美元贬值的风险，我们说过贸易逆差失衡有美国方面的原因。但却无人理会。现在是引起大家注意的时候了。
The pan-Pacific debate over the dollar's standing as a global currency continues. On Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama dismissed suggestions raised by China's central bank governor that the world needs a new international currency that can take the place of the dollar in international reserves. Fan Gang, a prominent economist and advisor to China's central bank, watched Obama on CNN in his Hong Kong hotel room, but says he was hardly convinced.
'Of course' an alternative is necessary 'in the long run, if we want to avoid the cyclical problems associated with the dollar standard,' Fan says in an interview with the Journal on Wednesday. Besides being director of China's National Economic Research Institute, a nongovernment think tank, Fan sits on the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, which means his views carry some weight in Beijing.
Fan describes the dollar as a kind of transmission mechanism for risk. The current crisis, he says, may have begun in the U.S. and Europe, but because of the dollar standard, 'the risk of highly leveraged institutions has spread to other countries.'
The onus therefore is now on the U.S. in particular to better regulate its banks and hedge funds for the sake of the global economy, he believes. Next, Fan says, 'we should monitor capital flows, and monitor leverage, and this information should be reported to the countries where (institutions) are investing.'
International trade in goods is heavily monitored and regulated, says Fan. It therefore makes no sense that 'you have a regulated real market and an unregulated financial market.'
Of course, China is pretty good at keeping a close eye on capital flows. It allows only limited convertibility of its currency, the yuan, and tightly restricts foreign investment in the country's capital markets. Fan, who asserts that 'Chinese prudence has paid off,' says capital controls are 'better for developing markets.'
(Later, speaking at a Credit Suisse investment conference over lunch, Fan reiterated his line about prudence paying off. Privately, one critic in the audience quietly scoffed. China happily financed the U.S. trade deficit by buying low-yielding Treasurys for years, he said. How prudent was it to offer cheap vendor financing to a big customer with a lot of debt?)
Fan says while China is eager to keep its currency stable, there is pressure to let the yuan fall - 'not just domestic pressure, but regional pressure,' as other Asian currencies weaken, making them more competitive. Rather than let the yuan fall against the dollar, he suggests that China should make reference more to the other currencies in the basket it uses to set the yuan's exchange rate. 'Eventually, China's currency should be related to other currencies, not just the dollar,' he says.
Fan worries that the Fed's quantitative easing is raising the risk of dollar inflation and devaluation, which 'is a concern not just for China but for everyone.' He also believes monetary problems will fuel more 'China bashing' in the U.S. from members of Congress that have previously railed against China's currency policies. 'In the future, you will see, when the dollar devalues, these senators will come back,' says Fan. Interestingly, Fan's excitement level seems to peak when he's asked why China is choosing to speak up now about the dollar.
'We have been talking about the risk of the dollar and dollar devaluation for a long time,' he says. 'We have been talking about U.S. causes behind the imbalances in the trade deficit. No one listened. This is a time to get noticed.'
Comments
Post a Comment