中国补贴太阳能政策蕴含长期风险Flying Too Near The Sun
飞得太接近太阳会烧焦翅膀，太阳能电池板领域的投资者肯定清楚这一点。
中国承诺为安装太阳能电池板提供至多达成本一半的补贴，这一消息推动该领域上周人气暴涨。中国太阳能电池公司股价飙升。从孟买到东京的各地太阳能公司股价随之走高。
这一短期刺激埋藏着一些长期风险。诸多企业蜂拥生产电池板的状况令人不禁想到如今供过于求的平板显示器和半导体市场。这些领域的企业目前赔钱速度比筹钱速度快。
单是日本就拥有10多家太阳能电池和模块生产商，其中包括夏普公司(Sharp Corp.)、日立公司(Hitachi Ltd.)以及本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)旗下全资子公司Honda Soltec等。
市场空间正变得越来越拥挤。夏普公司正在兴建一家工厂，大约一年内投产，届时产量可能增长至多69%。韩国的三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)和LG Corp.也在寻求大举进军该市场。印度的Webel-SL Energy上周五宣布，正在投资兴建第二家工厂。
这更别提已经从事该领域的诸多中国公司了。据统计，全球目前至少有30家上市的太阳能电池和模块生产商。
但还没有哪家公司能够主宰这个市场。根据Macquarie Research的数据，中国的尚德太阳能电力有限公司(Suntech Power Holdings Co.)、日本的夏普公司和德国的Q-Cells SE各控制着大约10%的市场份额。
这一占有率也未给夏普公司带来盈利。据瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)预计，夏普公司截至明年3月的当前财年将在太阳能电池领域获得接近16亿美元的收入，但可能将出现超过1.5亿美元的营运亏损；主要受低迷的需求以及日圆计价的价格下滑40%拖累。预计随后一年夏普公司也将出现亏损。
中国的林洋新能源(Solarfun Power Holdings)上周公布第四财季亏损6,100万美元，主要是因为需求疲软和库存高企导致太阳能电池均价下滑了17%。尚德太阳能也公布了亏损，并警告称当前财季亏损可能会进一步扩大。
中国政府提供补贴的利好消息盖过了所有这一切。林洋新能源股价飙升将近42%，尚德太阳能上涨43%；其他市场，Webel股价上涨11%。
不过，市场对补贴的这种敏感性也可能会带来不利后果。Macquarie Research说，日本于2006年停止对光电电池领域提供补贴，随后一年该领域的销售额就骤降了27%。
这是一个最好拥有重重保护才进行投资的领域。
Getting too close to the sun can singe your wings, investors in the solar-panel sector are sure to learn.
China's pledge to subsidize up to half of the cost of installing solar panels raised euphoria in the sector to a new pitch last week. Shares of Chinese solar-cell companies surged. Solar companies from Mumbai to Tokyo followed suit.
This short-term excitement belies some long-term risks. The rush of companies entering panel production is reminiscent of the now oversupplied flat-panel and semiconductor markets. Companies in those sectors are losing money faster than they can raise it.
In Japan alone there are over a dozen manufacturers of solar cells and modules, including Sharp Corp., Hitachi Ltd. and Honda Soltec, a wholly owned unit of Honda Motor Co.
The space is growing crowded. Sharp is building a plant that could increase production by as much as 69% when it comes online in about a year; Korea's Samsung Electronics and LG Corp. are looking to enter on a large scale; and India's Webel-SL Energy said Friday that it is investing in a second factory.
That's not to mention the many Chinese firms already in the game. By one count there are at least 30 listed solar-cell and module makers globally.
None dominates. China's Suntech Power Holdings, Japan's Sharp and Germany's Q-Cells SE each control about 10% of the market, according to Macquarie Research.
That isn't yet translating into profits for Sharp. In the year ending next March, Sharp will lose more than $150 million at the operating level on nearly $1.6 billion in solar-cell revenue because of flat demand and a 40% drop in yen-based prices, Credit Suisse forecasts. Red ink is expected also for the following year.
Last week, China's Solarfun Power Holdings posted a fourth-quarter loss of $61 million because average solar-cell prices fell 17% on soft demand and high inventories. Suntech too posted losses and warned the current quarter could be worse than the last.
News of China's subsidy trumped all this. Solarfun's shares rose nearly 42%, and Suntech's 43%. Elsewhere, Webel rose 11%.
But this sensitivity to subsidies can also bite. In Japan, when photovoltaic subsidies ended in 2006, sales nose-dived 27% the next year, Macquarie says.
This is one investment best made with a thick layer of protection.
中国承诺为安装太阳能电池板提供至多达成本一半的补贴，这一消息推动该领域上周人气暴涨。中国太阳能电池公司股价飙升。从孟买到东京的各地太阳能公司股价随之走高。
这一短期刺激埋藏着一些长期风险。诸多企业蜂拥生产电池板的状况令人不禁想到如今供过于求的平板显示器和半导体市场。这些领域的企业目前赔钱速度比筹钱速度快。
单是日本就拥有10多家太阳能电池和模块生产商，其中包括夏普公司(Sharp Corp.)、日立公司(Hitachi Ltd.)以及本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)旗下全资子公司Honda Soltec等。
市场空间正变得越来越拥挤。夏普公司正在兴建一家工厂，大约一年内投产，届时产量可能增长至多69%。韩国的三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)和LG Corp.也在寻求大举进军该市场。印度的Webel-SL Energy上周五宣布，正在投资兴建第二家工厂。
这更别提已经从事该领域的诸多中国公司了。据统计，全球目前至少有30家上市的太阳能电池和模块生产商。
但还没有哪家公司能够主宰这个市场。根据Macquarie Research的数据，中国的尚德太阳能电力有限公司(Suntech Power Holdings Co.)、日本的夏普公司和德国的Q-Cells SE各控制着大约10%的市场份额。
这一占有率也未给夏普公司带来盈利。据瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)预计，夏普公司截至明年3月的当前财年将在太阳能电池领域获得接近16亿美元的收入，但可能将出现超过1.5亿美元的营运亏损；主要受低迷的需求以及日圆计价的价格下滑40%拖累。预计随后一年夏普公司也将出现亏损。
中国的林洋新能源(Solarfun Power Holdings)上周公布第四财季亏损6,100万美元，主要是因为需求疲软和库存高企导致太阳能电池均价下滑了17%。尚德太阳能也公布了亏损，并警告称当前财季亏损可能会进一步扩大。
中国政府提供补贴的利好消息盖过了所有这一切。林洋新能源股价飙升将近42%，尚德太阳能上涨43%；其他市场，Webel股价上涨11%。
不过，市场对补贴的这种敏感性也可能会带来不利后果。Macquarie Research说，日本于2006年停止对光电电池领域提供补贴，随后一年该领域的销售额就骤降了27%。
这是一个最好拥有重重保护才进行投资的领域。
Getting too close to the sun can singe your wings, investors in the solar-panel sector are sure to learn.
China's pledge to subsidize up to half of the cost of installing solar panels raised euphoria in the sector to a new pitch last week. Shares of Chinese solar-cell companies surged. Solar companies from Mumbai to Tokyo followed suit.
This short-term excitement belies some long-term risks. The rush of companies entering panel production is reminiscent of the now oversupplied flat-panel and semiconductor markets. Companies in those sectors are losing money faster than they can raise it.
In Japan alone there are over a dozen manufacturers of solar cells and modules, including Sharp Corp., Hitachi Ltd. and Honda Soltec, a wholly owned unit of Honda Motor Co.
The space is growing crowded. Sharp is building a plant that could increase production by as much as 69% when it comes online in about a year; Korea's Samsung Electronics and LG Corp. are looking to enter on a large scale; and India's Webel-SL Energy said Friday that it is investing in a second factory.
That's not to mention the many Chinese firms already in the game. By one count there are at least 30 listed solar-cell and module makers globally.
None dominates. China's Suntech Power Holdings, Japan's Sharp and Germany's Q-Cells SE each control about 10% of the market, according to Macquarie Research.
That isn't yet translating into profits for Sharp. In the year ending next March, Sharp will lose more than $150 million at the operating level on nearly $1.6 billion in solar-cell revenue because of flat demand and a 40% drop in yen-based prices, Credit Suisse forecasts. Red ink is expected also for the following year.
Last week, China's Solarfun Power Holdings posted a fourth-quarter loss of $61 million because average solar-cell prices fell 17% on soft demand and high inventories. Suntech too posted losses and warned the current quarter could be worse than the last.
News of China's subsidy trumped all this. Solarfun's shares rose nearly 42%, and Suntech's 43%. Elsewhere, Webel rose 11%.
But this sensitivity to subsidies can also bite. In Japan, when photovoltaic subsidies ended in 2006, sales nose-dived 27% the next year, Macquarie says.
This is one investment best made with a thick layer of protection.
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