房价“地板”未必牢靠Creaking Floor Under House Prices
房价目前看来像是触底了，但这个“地板”牢靠吗？
鉴于美国政府出台了许多重大措施支撑抵押贷款市场，房价显示出可能没有太多进一步下跌空间的迹象。
但房价并不仅仅取决于低廉的融资。事实上，如果更大范围的经济不能迅速复苏，政府的调节措施可能反而导致房价再度下跌。
大幅下挫的房价和超级低廉的抵押贷款肯定会引发抄底。政府对信贷市场的干预促使基准的30年期定息抵押贷款利率降低到了4.85%。这是自房地美(Freddie Mac)自1971年开始记录这项数据以来的最低水平。据联邦住屋融资局(Federal Housing Finance Agency)公布的数据，1月份美国房屋价格较12月份上涨1.7%，此前几个月房价都在下跌。
这是房市的恶性循环可能被打破的一个小信号。决策者们担心，房价跌得越狠，尚未还清贷款的借款人就越有可能选择违约，从而增加止赎，迫使房价进一步下跌。
如果房价持续复苏，就可能消除这种担忧，同时支撑整个经济领域的信心。
一项关键数据表明房价有希望回升。美国全国地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)的负担能力指数比近期房市泡沫期间的低点高67%。此外，该指数还比1991年底的水平高52%，当时正是1990－1991年衰退之后房价开始上涨之际。当住房成本相对于收入出现下降时，该指数就会上升。
但还有两方面的因素可能阻碍房价回升。
首先，借款者可能不想在个人财务状况依然紧张的时候背负更多的抵押贷款债务。房价负担能力指数没有反映个人财务状况。截止去年年底，个人可支配收入仅为住房贷款负债的75%。而1991年这一比率为114%。
第二，不断上涨的失业率可能继续产生不利的影响。这种情况令在职人员对大笔买房开支更为谨慎，但失业造成的最大破坏是导致止赎增加，甚至个人财务状况较好的借款人也可能面临止赎。
贷款拖欠比率数据并不乐观。需要特别指出的是，2006年之前发放的贷款出现违约的情况正在增加，而2006年贷款标准才开始大幅降低。First American CoreLogic的数据显示，今年1月，2005年发放的Alt-A贷款累积违约率为4.2%，远远高于上年同期的0.64%。2005年发放、不符合房地美或房利美(Fannie Mae)收购条件的优质贷款今年1月份违约率为0.56%，上年同期为0.07%。
房利美2005年的抵押贷款大多数都是在十分谨慎的前提下发放的，但如今它们的违约率也异常高。
在这样的背景下，政府将会继续加大对抵押贷款的补贴。其风险在于：购房者被人为保持低廉的融资成本吸引入市，结果却发现房价随后又跌穿了当前的“底”。
Can home buyers trust the floor they are standing on?
In response to gigantic government efforts to support the mortgage market, house prices are showing signs that they mightn't have much further to fall.
But prices have to be built on more than cheap financing. Indeed, government leverage could set the stage for another downdraft if the wider economy doesn't recover fast.
Sharply lower house prices and ultracheap mortgages were bound to spark bargain hunting. Government intervention in credit markets has helped push down rates on standard, fixed-rate, 30-year mortgages to 4.85%. That is the lowest level since Freddie Mac's records began in 1971. After months of decline, house prices jumped 1.7% in January from December, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
This was a small sign the vicious circle in housing can be broken. Policy makers fear the more prices fall, the more likely it is that underwater borrowers choose to default, increasing foreclosures and forcing prices down even further.
A sustained house-price recovery could eliminate that fear, while bolstering confidence across the economy.
And one key indicator supports hopes for a house-price rally. The National Association of Realtors' affordability index, which moves up as the cost of housing falls relative to income, is 67% higher than its low during the recent housing bubble. What's more, it is 52% above its level at the end of 1991 -- when house prices started rising after the 1990-91 recession.
However, two countervailing forces could thwart a rally.
First, borrowers mightn't want to take on more mortgage debt while personal balance sheets are still stressed, something not reflected by the affordability index. At the end of last year, personal disposable income covered 75% of household liabilities. In 1991, it was 114%.
Second, rising unemployment could continue to take a heavy toll. It makes the employed more cautious about large purchases, but unemployment does most damage by driving foreclosures higher -- even among borrowers with sounder personal balance sheets.
The delinquency data aren't encouraging. In particular, defaults are now rising on loans made before 2006 -- when lending standards started to deteriorate sharply. In January, Alt-A loans made in 2005 had a cumulative default rate of 4.2%, up from 0.64% a year earlier, according to First American CoreLogic. The default rate on 2005 prime mortgages that didn't qualify for purchase by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac was 0.56% in January, up from 0.07% a year earlier.
Even Fannie Mae's 2005 mortgages, most of which should have been conservatively underwritten, are suffering unusually high default rates.
Given this backdrop, the government will be tempted to keep stepping up mortgage subsidies. The risk: Buyers are lured in by artificially cheap financing, only to find the house-price floor subsequently gives way.
鉴于美国政府出台了许多重大措施支撑抵押贷款市场，房价显示出可能没有太多进一步下跌空间的迹象。
但房价并不仅仅取决于低廉的融资。事实上，如果更大范围的经济不能迅速复苏，政府的调节措施可能反而导致房价再度下跌。
大幅下挫的房价和超级低廉的抵押贷款肯定会引发抄底。政府对信贷市场的干预促使基准的30年期定息抵押贷款利率降低到了4.85%。这是自房地美(Freddie Mac)自1971年开始记录这项数据以来的最低水平。据联邦住屋融资局(Federal Housing Finance Agency)公布的数据，1月份美国房屋价格较12月份上涨1.7%，此前几个月房价都在下跌。
这是房市的恶性循环可能被打破的一个小信号。决策者们担心，房价跌得越狠，尚未还清贷款的借款人就越有可能选择违约，从而增加止赎，迫使房价进一步下跌。
如果房价持续复苏，就可能消除这种担忧，同时支撑整个经济领域的信心。
一项关键数据表明房价有希望回升。美国全国地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors)的负担能力指数比近期房市泡沫期间的低点高67%。此外，该指数还比1991年底的水平高52%，当时正是1990－1991年衰退之后房价开始上涨之际。当住房成本相对于收入出现下降时，该指数就会上升。
但还有两方面的因素可能阻碍房价回升。
首先，借款者可能不想在个人财务状况依然紧张的时候背负更多的抵押贷款债务。房价负担能力指数没有反映个人财务状况。截止去年年底，个人可支配收入仅为住房贷款负债的75%。而1991年这一比率为114%。
第二，不断上涨的失业率可能继续产生不利的影响。这种情况令在职人员对大笔买房开支更为谨慎，但失业造成的最大破坏是导致止赎增加，甚至个人财务状况较好的借款人也可能面临止赎。
贷款拖欠比率数据并不乐观。需要特别指出的是，2006年之前发放的贷款出现违约的情况正在增加，而2006年贷款标准才开始大幅降低。First American CoreLogic的数据显示，今年1月，2005年发放的Alt-A贷款累积违约率为4.2%，远远高于上年同期的0.64%。2005年发放、不符合房地美或房利美(Fannie Mae)收购条件的优质贷款今年1月份违约率为0.56%，上年同期为0.07%。
房利美2005年的抵押贷款大多数都是在十分谨慎的前提下发放的，但如今它们的违约率也异常高。
在这样的背景下，政府将会继续加大对抵押贷款的补贴。其风险在于：购房者被人为保持低廉的融资成本吸引入市，结果却发现房价随后又跌穿了当前的“底”。
Can home buyers trust the floor they are standing on?
In response to gigantic government efforts to support the mortgage market, house prices are showing signs that they mightn't have much further to fall.
But prices have to be built on more than cheap financing. Indeed, government leverage could set the stage for another downdraft if the wider economy doesn't recover fast.
Sharply lower house prices and ultracheap mortgages were bound to spark bargain hunting. Government intervention in credit markets has helped push down rates on standard, fixed-rate, 30-year mortgages to 4.85%. That is the lowest level since Freddie Mac's records began in 1971. After months of decline, house prices jumped 1.7% in January from December, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
This was a small sign the vicious circle in housing can be broken. Policy makers fear the more prices fall, the more likely it is that underwater borrowers choose to default, increasing foreclosures and forcing prices down even further.
A sustained house-price recovery could eliminate that fear, while bolstering confidence across the economy.
And one key indicator supports hopes for a house-price rally. The National Association of Realtors' affordability index, which moves up as the cost of housing falls relative to income, is 67% higher than its low during the recent housing bubble. What's more, it is 52% above its level at the end of 1991 -- when house prices started rising after the 1990-91 recession.
However, two countervailing forces could thwart a rally.
First, borrowers mightn't want to take on more mortgage debt while personal balance sheets are still stressed, something not reflected by the affordability index. At the end of last year, personal disposable income covered 75% of household liabilities. In 1991, it was 114%.
Second, rising unemployment could continue to take a heavy toll. It makes the employed more cautious about large purchases, but unemployment does most damage by driving foreclosures higher -- even among borrowers with sounder personal balance sheets.
The delinquency data aren't encouraging. In particular, defaults are now rising on loans made before 2006 -- when lending standards started to deteriorate sharply. In January, Alt-A loans made in 2005 had a cumulative default rate of 4.2%, up from 0.64% a year earlier, according to First American CoreLogic. The default rate on 2005 prime mortgages that didn't qualify for purchase by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac was 0.56% in January, up from 0.07% a year earlier.
Even Fannie Mae's 2005 mortgages, most of which should have been conservatively underwritten, are suffering unusually high default rates.
Given this backdrop, the government will be tempted to keep stepping up mortgage subsidies. The risk: Buyers are lured in by artificially cheap financing, only to find the house-price floor subsequently gives way.
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