哪些股票率先摆脱了衰退阴影？The Recession's Early Winners
这次经济衰退将重新塑造几代美国人，包括我们的生活和工作方式。未来会怎样？谁将成为赢家？谁会沦为失败者？
如果你预测准确，你肯定可以大赚一把。
自市场崩溃以来仅仅过了6个月，而股市已经开始做起了初步预测。市场虽然并不是一个理想的预言家，但它过去在这方面的表现还算很不错。而它现在作出的几个预测对传统观点发起了挑战。
IPhone家族还活着
危机爆发伊始，无线通讯公司的股价应声大跌，斯普林特(Sprint)重挫85%，苹果(Apple)跌去一半以上。传统看法认为：无线服务和时尚手持设备太昂贵。即使每月60美元一年也要720美元。处境不佳的消费者因为不得不削减家庭预算而会放弃这方面的计划，或是大幅削减此类开支。
目前的情况又如何呢？市场正在重新开始激烈的思想斗争。如今无线通讯类公司的股价已较去年11月创下的低点平均上涨了40%左右。在这期间，市场其他类股跌得一塌糊涂。斯普林特的股价则较低点上升了一倍。苹果公司、生产黑莓手机的Research In Motion、甚至还有Palm都有大幅上升。
原因何在？或许，经历了市场崩溃之后的美国人根本不会放弃他们心仪的手持设备。Oppenheimer分析师霍兰(Tim Horan)说，通过这次衰退我们已经了解到，无线设备更多地已成为一种必需品，我们没看到有多少人放弃无线通讯服务。
花式咖啡或会成为“节流”目标
星巴克(Starbucks)的股价是市场暴跌初期的又一个牺牲品。该股股价一落千丈，去年秋天的时候所有人都在抛售，因为对于一个捉襟见肘的消费者来说，昂贵的花式咖啡是最容易成为其削减目标的预算类别。
不过，市场现在也在重新审视星巴克。该股股价目前已较其低点回升了55%。星巴克的收入和利润的确明显下滑，但该公司管理层为应对这种局面正在削减成本，还采取了新的促销措施。已有超过75万人申请了星巴克的会员卡，比公司预计的人数超出了两倍（而且这也是一种“无线的”活动：他们给来消费的顾客提供一些免费的WiFi服务）。星巴克已成为许多人日常生活的一个重要部分。其竞争对手Peet的股价也上涨了约10%。
网络股杀回来了！
大多数普通零售商的股价过去6个月受到重创，原因很明显。随着大手大脚的消费者缩减支出，预计将有更多的传统商家关门大吉。但对于网上零售商来说，形势却在改变。初期也出现股价下跌的亚马逊(Amazon)目前已较11月份的价位回升了一倍。消费者对其Kindle电子图书阅读器的狂热追捧起到了很大推动作用。网上珠宝首饰零售商Blue Nile也出现反弹。Netflix更是创下历史新高，首次突破40美元大关。这家网上影片租赁公司成为这次衰退以来最大的股市赢家，衰退让人们更多地选择呆在家里看电影消磨时光。而且，Netflix的订阅费通常只要每月14美元，比有线电视费便宜多了。
历史学家告诉我们，在大萧条时期表现最好的许多股票其实是所谓的成长型公司的股票，因为这是些有能力征服未来的公司。当飓风横扫过森林，倒下的会是那些残年老树。幼嫩的小树会活下来、生长壮大。经济领域或许也是如此。
This recession is going to reshape America for generations, including the way we live and work. What will the future look like? Who will be the winners and losers?
Obviously you could make a lot of money if you guess right.
It's only six months into the crash, but the stock market is already starting to make some early calls. The market isn't a perfect seer of the future, but it has a pretty good track record. And a few of the calls it's making now are challenging the conventional wisdom.
IPhone nation lives. Shares in cellular companies tanked when the crisis first hit. Sprint crashed 85%. Apple fell by more than half. The conventional wisdom: Cellular contracts and fancy handhelds are very expensive. Even a $60 a month habit is costing you $720 a year. Desperate consumers would drop these plans, or scale back sharply, as they were forced to slash their household budgets.
So far? The market's having a dramatic rethink. Shares in cellular companies have jumped about 40%, on average, from their November lows. During that time the rest of the market has gone nowhere. Sprint's doubled from its distressed levels. Apple, Black Berry's Research In Motion, even Palm have risen a long way.
The reason: Maybe post-crash America won't junk its fancy handhelds after all. 'We've learned this recession that wireless has become more of a necessity,' says analyst Tim Horan at Oppenheimer. 'We haven't seen a lot of people dropping their cellphone service.'
The daily latte may not be toast. Starbucks stock was another early victim of the crash. The shares collapsed. Everyone beat them up last fall, because an expensive latte habit is one of the easiest budget cuts a hard-pressed consumer can make.
The market's rethinking this one, too. Starbucks stock has now jumped 55% from the lows. Sure, sales and profits are well down. But management is fighting back with cost savings and new initiatives. More than 750,000 people have signed up for Starbucks loyalty cards, triple what the company expected. (And that's a wireless play too: They give you some free WiFi with your beverage.) The coffee shop has become an important part of many people's day. Shares in rival coffee chain Peet's are up about 10% too.
Dotcoms strike back! Shares in most regular retailers have slumped over the past six months, for obvious reasons. Expect more bricks and mortar stores to close as overstretched consumers retrench. But when it comes to online retailers, the story changes. Amazon stock, which tanked initially, has doubled since November. Hype over the Kindle electronic book reader has helped. Online jeweler Blue Nile has also bounced. And look at Netflix its stock just hit a record high, surging over $40 for the first time. The Internet-based movie rental company is one of the big winners of the recession so far, as consumers stay home and order in movies. And it makes sense: A Netflix subscription, typically about $14 a month, is much cheaper than cable.
Historians note that many of the stocks which did best during the Great Depression were actually so-called 'growth' companies, because they were the ones conquering the future. When a hurricane sweeps through a forest it knocks down a lot of the older, weaker trees. The younger ones survive and prosper. And so it may be in the economy.
如果你预测准确，你肯定可以大赚一把。
自市场崩溃以来仅仅过了6个月，而股市已经开始做起了初步预测。市场虽然并不是一个理想的预言家，但它过去在这方面的表现还算很不错。而它现在作出的几个预测对传统观点发起了挑战。
IPhone家族还活着
危机爆发伊始，无线通讯公司的股价应声大跌，斯普林特(Sprint)重挫85%，苹果(Apple)跌去一半以上。传统看法认为：无线服务和时尚手持设备太昂贵。即使每月60美元一年也要720美元。处境不佳的消费者因为不得不削减家庭预算而会放弃这方面的计划，或是大幅削减此类开支。
目前的情况又如何呢？市场正在重新开始激烈的思想斗争。如今无线通讯类公司的股价已较去年11月创下的低点平均上涨了40%左右。在这期间，市场其他类股跌得一塌糊涂。斯普林特的股价则较低点上升了一倍。苹果公司、生产黑莓手机的Research In Motion、甚至还有Palm都有大幅上升。
原因何在？或许，经历了市场崩溃之后的美国人根本不会放弃他们心仪的手持设备。Oppenheimer分析师霍兰(Tim Horan)说，通过这次衰退我们已经了解到，无线设备更多地已成为一种必需品，我们没看到有多少人放弃无线通讯服务。
花式咖啡或会成为“节流”目标
星巴克(Starbucks)的股价是市场暴跌初期的又一个牺牲品。该股股价一落千丈，去年秋天的时候所有人都在抛售，因为对于一个捉襟见肘的消费者来说，昂贵的花式咖啡是最容易成为其削减目标的预算类别。
不过，市场现在也在重新审视星巴克。该股股价目前已较其低点回升了55%。星巴克的收入和利润的确明显下滑，但该公司管理层为应对这种局面正在削减成本，还采取了新的促销措施。已有超过75万人申请了星巴克的会员卡，比公司预计的人数超出了两倍（而且这也是一种“无线的”活动：他们给来消费的顾客提供一些免费的WiFi服务）。星巴克已成为许多人日常生活的一个重要部分。其竞争对手Peet的股价也上涨了约10%。
网络股杀回来了！
大多数普通零售商的股价过去6个月受到重创，原因很明显。随着大手大脚的消费者缩减支出，预计将有更多的传统商家关门大吉。但对于网上零售商来说，形势却在改变。初期也出现股价下跌的亚马逊(Amazon)目前已较11月份的价位回升了一倍。消费者对其Kindle电子图书阅读器的狂热追捧起到了很大推动作用。网上珠宝首饰零售商Blue Nile也出现反弹。Netflix更是创下历史新高，首次突破40美元大关。这家网上影片租赁公司成为这次衰退以来最大的股市赢家，衰退让人们更多地选择呆在家里看电影消磨时光。而且，Netflix的订阅费通常只要每月14美元，比有线电视费便宜多了。
历史学家告诉我们，在大萧条时期表现最好的许多股票其实是所谓的成长型公司的股票，因为这是些有能力征服未来的公司。当飓风横扫过森林，倒下的会是那些残年老树。幼嫩的小树会活下来、生长壮大。经济领域或许也是如此。
This recession is going to reshape America for generations, including the way we live and work. What will the future look like? Who will be the winners and losers?
Obviously you could make a lot of money if you guess right.
It's only six months into the crash, but the stock market is already starting to make some early calls. The market isn't a perfect seer of the future, but it has a pretty good track record. And a few of the calls it's making now are challenging the conventional wisdom.
IPhone nation lives. Shares in cellular companies tanked when the crisis first hit. Sprint crashed 85%. Apple fell by more than half. The conventional wisdom: Cellular contracts and fancy handhelds are very expensive. Even a $60 a month habit is costing you $720 a year. Desperate consumers would drop these plans, or scale back sharply, as they were forced to slash their household budgets.
So far? The market's having a dramatic rethink. Shares in cellular companies have jumped about 40%, on average, from their November lows. During that time the rest of the market has gone nowhere. Sprint's doubled from its distressed levels. Apple, Black Berry's Research In Motion, even Palm have risen a long way.
The reason: Maybe post-crash America won't junk its fancy handhelds after all. 'We've learned this recession that wireless has become more of a necessity,' says analyst Tim Horan at Oppenheimer. 'We haven't seen a lot of people dropping their cellphone service.'
The daily latte may not be toast. Starbucks stock was another early victim of the crash. The shares collapsed. Everyone beat them up last fall, because an expensive latte habit is one of the easiest budget cuts a hard-pressed consumer can make.
The market's rethinking this one, too. Starbucks stock has now jumped 55% from the lows. Sure, sales and profits are well down. But management is fighting back with cost savings and new initiatives. More than 750,000 people have signed up for Starbucks loyalty cards, triple what the company expected. (And that's a wireless play too: They give you some free WiFi with your beverage.) The coffee shop has become an important part of many people's day. Shares in rival coffee chain Peet's are up about 10% too.
Dotcoms strike back! Shares in most regular retailers have slumped over the past six months, for obvious reasons. Expect more bricks and mortar stores to close as overstretched consumers retrench. But when it comes to online retailers, the story changes. Amazon stock, which tanked initially, has doubled since November. Hype over the Kindle electronic book reader has helped. Online jeweler Blue Nile has also bounced. And look at Netflix its stock just hit a record high, surging over $40 for the first time. The Internet-based movie rental company is one of the big winners of the recession so far, as consumers stay home and order in movies. And it makes sense: A Netflix subscription, typically about $14 a month, is much cheaper than cable.
Historians note that many of the stocks which did best during the Great Depression were actually so-called 'growth' companies, because they were the ones conquering the future. When a hurricane sweeps through a forest it knocks down a lot of the older, weaker trees. The younger ones survive and prosper. And so it may be in the economy.
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