一样的信贷 不一样的多空结论Bulls, Bears Point To Lending

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数已从3月份的低点上涨24%，多空双方都感觉事实将很快证明他们才是正确的了。

多方找到了越来越多的证据，认为此次反弹将会持续下去。空方则警告说，现在涨得越高，以后就会跌的越惨。

奇怪的是，尽管双方的结论截然相反，但理由却都来自于对经济领域的判断，这就是信贷体系。

Wells Capital Management首席投资策略师鲍尔森(James Paulsen)说，担忧的中心是银行充斥着有毒资产的想法。Wells Capital是富国银行(Wells Fargo)的资产管理子公司，负责约3,750亿美元的资产。鲍尔森认为，银行持有的抵押贷款支持证券的价值要比人们所认为的高得多，如此一来，随着对银行系统信心的恢复，经济乃至股市都可能出现V型反转。

Contango Capital Advisors首席执行长费戈尔(George Feiger)认为这种想法过于疯狂。Contango是银行控股公司Zions Bancorp旗下子公司，管理着13亿美元资金。费戈尔说，问题的核心是信贷体系，而信贷体系已经受到了严重打击。化解信贷泡沫的时间要以年来计，而非几个季度。我们将此次股票反弹视为减仓的机会。

如此聪明而经验丰富的投资者对于同样的数据为何能产生如此大的分歧呢？让我们先听听乐观派的见解。

Wells Capital的鲍尔森预计，消费者将开始更积极地用房屋做抵押来贷款，随着消费者支出和出口的增长，经济也将恢复增长。他说，即使经济增长没有恢复到以前的水平，这种改善也足以推动股价从低点回升。

鲍尔森和其他人指出，甚至在经济陷入低谷的上世纪30年代和70年代，股市也曾经历了短暂但却强劲的牛市。从1932年7月9日至9月7日，道琼斯指数几乎翻了一番，之后在1933年上半年又重现了这一幕，尽管当时的银行体系依然困难重重。后来股价再度下跌，但没有回到1932年时的低点。从历史上看，道琼斯指数经常会在下跌约50%后出现强劲反弹，这次也是如此。

在乐观派的眼里，受政府1万多亿美元救助资金的支持，银行体系正在自行修复。

随着按揭利率的下降，对抵押贷款转按揭的需求也大幅增长。投资者都在抢购高风险信贷工具。上周曾出现了六个月以来垃圾债券最为繁忙的一天，医院运营商HCA和手机信号塔运营商Crown Castle International都发售了债券。

去年年末，公司债券收益率被大幅推高，这增加了发现新债券的难度。然而，自11月下旬以来，即使垃圾债券收益率也一直在下降。美林(Merrill Lynch)编制的指数显示，垃圾债券和美国国债收益率之间的差距已大幅下跌，不过仍是一年前的近两倍。

乐观派指出，包括摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)、高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)和花旗集团(Citigroup)等银行都公布好于预期的第一季度利润。银行可在政府的支持下发行低成本债券，从而有助于增加贷款息差。

达尔达(Michael Darda)等分析师一直在等待这种迹象。达尔达是康涅狄格州经纪公司MKM Partners的首席经济学家，他在去年年底时曾对股票的前景感到怀疑，但现在已不再担忧。

达尔达在一份报告中说，随着美联储采取的宽松政策同增加支出的财政刺激措施共同发力，我们继续认为扩张产生的推动作用将一直持续到2010年。他预计这一趋势会持续下去，经济衰退将在6月至10月间结束。他指出，股市先于经济出现回升是正常现象，这令他看好股市。

对于同样的数据，悲观人士的看法却恰恰相反。看空者指出，银行盈利部分是由于政府的支持，这降低了它们进行减记的必要。他们还表示，最近部分新增银行贷款是由于陷入困境的借款人被迫动用其信贷额度。并且花旗和美国银行(Bank of America)等大银行都在依靠政府的担保发售债券，这个迹象说明信贷市场依然没有复原。

帮助管理匹兹堡Federated Investors旗下一只18亿美元的共同基金的雷曼(Steve Lehman)说，有人说经济形势正在开始触底。如果是这样，我会感到非常吃惊。从技术上讲银行已经资不抵债。它们基本已成为安然(Enron)一样的对冲基金。

他担心房屋止赎、债务减记退休金计划严重资金不足和信用卡损失大量发生的情况还远未结束，这可能妨碍经济增长和股市复苏。

雷曼说，到某个时候，股市可能还有足够的下跌空间，大盘指数的市盈率会从目前的13倍左右降至个位数，并维持一段时间。以前的大熊市中曾经出现过这种情况，但这次还未出现过。

他说，这种下跌将推动标准普尔500指数跌至600点以下，然后抛盘才会结束，不过在此之前股市可能会大起大落。上周五，标准普尔500指数收于869.60点。

他特别担心的是经济学家们所谓的“影子银行系统”──在这个系统下，银行将贷款出售给包括其它银行在内的投资者。这种出售可以带来大规模的信贷扩张，但也会诱使银行不太关注贷款质量。而且，因为它们以资产支持证券的形式回购了许多此类贷款，这些银行被迫拿着别人不愿意要的东西。

现在，投资者不会购买此类证券，影子银行体系也名存实亡。费戈尔估计，在危机之前，全部贷款中有60%都游离于正常银行系统之外。他问道，以后谁会发放这种贷款呢？

乐观的基金经理指出，即使股市的回调还没有结束，但道琼斯指数从1929年9月到1932年7月最终触底前也出现了五次不低于20%的反弹。多方希望能抓住这种反弹的机会。

看跌者觉得，将绝大部分现金投入到货币市场基金和美国国债中才更有安全感。

他们是否会改变想法，将囤积的部分资金投向股市可能会决定最近的反弹能够持续多久。

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 24% from its March low, both bulls and bears are feeling they will soon be vindicated.

The bulls are finding more evidence that this rally is the start of something lasting. The bears warn that the higher the market goes, the more pain will be suffered on the other side.

Strangely, both are pointing to the same part of the economy to make their opposing cases: the lending system.

'The epicenter of the fear is the idea that banks are full of toxic assets,' says James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $375 billion as Wells Fargo's money-management arm. He thinks mortgage-backed securities held by banks are worth much more than people think, and that 'we could have a V-shaped recovery' in the economy, and the stock market, as confidence in the system returns.

George Feiger thinks that idea is crazy. 'The core of the problem is the credit system and the credit system is severely damaged,' says Mr. Feiger, who oversees $1.3 billion as chief executive of Contango Capital Advisors, a subsidiary of Zions Bancorp. 'Unwinding the credit bubble is going to take years, not quarters. We see this stock rally as an opportunity to sell.'

How can smart, experienced investors disagree so strongly, when looking at similar data？ Let's hear from the optimists first.

Mr. Paulsen of Wells Capital expects consumers to begin borrowing more heavily against their homes, and sees economic growth recovering amid a pickup in consumer spending and exports. Even if growth doesn't return to where it was, he says, the improvement should be enough to pull stocks up from their depressed levels.

He and others point out that even during the troubled 1930s and 1970s, stocks enjoyed strong, albeit temporary, bull markets. The Dow almost doubled from July 9, 1932, through Sept. 7, 1932, and then did it again in the first half of 1933, even as the banking system continued to crumble. Stocks fell again later, but not back to 1932 levels. Historically, the Dow often has rebounded sharply after being down around 50%, as it was this time.

In the optimists' view, the credit system, juiced by over $1 trillion in government aid, is repairing itself.

Demand for mortgage refinancing has blossomed as mortgage rates have fallen. Investors are snapping up risky credit instruments. Last week saw the busiest day for junk-bond sales in more than six months as hospital operator HCA and phone-tower operator Crown Castle International sold debt.

Late last year, yields on corporate bonds were pushed skyward, adding to the difficulty of issuing new bonds. Since late November, however, even junk-bond yields have been falling. The difference between junk-bond yields and Treasury-bond yields has tumbled, according to Merrill Lynch indexes, although it still is almost twice what it was just a year ago.

Optimists point out that banks including J.P. Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Group and Citigroup reported better-than-expected first-quarter profits. Banks are able to issue bonds cheaply with government backing, helping increase lending margins.

Analysts like Michael Darda have been waiting for such signs. Mr. Darda, chief economist at Greenwich, Conn., brokerage firm MKM Partners, was skeptical of the stock outlook as recently as late last year, but not any longer.

'We continue to believe the expansion will build steam into 2010 as an easy Fed policy collides with the spend-out from the fiscal stimulus,' Mr. Darda said in a report. He expects this trend to continue, with the recession ending between June and October. He notes that it is normal for the stock market to recover just ahead of the economy, which makes him bullish.

The pessimists are turning to similar data to make the opposite case. Bears note that bank profits are due in part to government support, which has reduced the need for write-offs. Some of the new bank lending lately, they add, is because stressed borrowers are being forced to tap their credit lines. And big banks like Citigroup and Bank of America are relying on government guarantees to sell bonds, a sign that credit markets are fractured.

'Some people say the economic conditions are starting to bottom here. I would be really surprised if that happens,' says Steve Lehman, who helps oversee a $1.8 billion mutual fund at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh. 'The banks are technically insolvent. They have become basically Enron-like hedge funds.'

He worries the proliferation of home foreclosures, debt write-downs, severely underfunded pension plans and credit-card losses is far from over, which could hobble growth and stock recovery.

At some point, Mr. Lehman says, stocks are likely to fall enough that the ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings for broad stock indexes will drop into single digits, from about 13 now, and stay there a while. That happened during past major bear markets but hasn't yet happened this time.

Such a decline could push the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index below 600 before the selling ends, he says, although stocks could go through ups and downs before that happens. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 869.60.

He is particularly concerned about what economists call the 'shadow banking system' -- the system under which banks sold loans to investors, including other banks. Those sales permitted a vast expansion of credit, but they also tempted banks to be less careful in their lending. And, because they bought back many such loans in the form of asset-backed securities, the banks were among those left holding the bag.

Now investors won't buy such securities and the shadow banking system has been left for dead. Mr. Feiger estimates that, before the bust, 60% of all loans were held outside the normal banking system. Who, he asks, is going to extend that kind of credit in the future？

Optimistic money managers point out that even if the stock pullback isn't over, the Dow industrials enjoyed five surges of 20% or more from September 1929 until they finally hit bottom in July 1932. The bulls want to get in on such rebounds.

The bears feel safer keeping exceptionally large amounts of cash in money-market funds and Treasury bonds.

Whether they change their minds, and shift some of that hoard to stocks, could determine how much longer the recent rally continues.

E.s. Browning