中国股市“不劳而获”的上涨China's Unearned Upturn

中国股市第一季度表现很好。或许太好了。

上证综合指数在全球股市中表现出众，涨幅超过30%。H股涨幅较小，上涨了3%。

中国股市的这一强劲表现却与最近有关中国上市公司收益情况的消息对不上号。据麦格理(Macquarie Research)的数据显示，公布了2008年收益报告的公司中有近一半不及分析师的普遍预期，只有约四分之一的企业收益高于预期。

今年1、2月份，中国工业企业的利润较上年同期下滑37%。不错，这只是反映过往情况的数字。不过这进一步印证了以下观点：即便中国经济有所好转，也尚未转化成更高的企业利润。

那些看好中国经济的人还指出银行贷款的大幅增长，这些贷款旨在利用政府5,860亿美元的财政刺激计划。

不过，这两个因素都不一定会导致私人需求和外部需求的增加，而只有这些需求才会真正提振企业利润。

分析师正慢慢转而同意这个观点，不过他们可能仍过于乐观。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的策略师娄冈(Jerry Lou)指出，直到3月份，分析师才开始预计H股成份股公司2009年的收益会下滑；现在他们的普遍预测是下滑1.4%。娄冈则预计收益的降幅会更接近26%。

所以，仍有空间让更多的现实情况体现在中国企业的收益和股价中。
It was a pretty good first quarter for Chinese stocks. Maybe too good.

The Shanghai Composite Index was a global standout, rising more than 30%. Less dramatic was the 3% rise among shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, known as H-shares.

These performances fly in the face of recent news on Chinese corporate earnings. Nearly half of those firms that reported 2008 results have undershot analysts' consensus forecasts, while only about a quarter have performed better, according to Macquarie Research.

Over January and February, profits at industrial firms slumped 37% from a year earlier. True, that's backward-looking. But it adds credence to the view that even if China's economy has turned a corner, this isn't translating yet into higher profits.

Those bullish on China's economy also point to a surge in bank lending aimed at capitalizing on the government's $586 billion fiscal stimulus.

But neither factor necessarily translates into the kind of increased private or external-sector demand that would truly help company profits.

Analysts are slowly coming around to this point, but may still be too optimistic. Morgan Stanley strategist Jerry Lou points out that it wasn't until March that analysts began to expect H-share earnings to fall in 2009; their consensus forecast is now for a drop of 1.4%. Mr. Lou is looking for a decline of closer to 26%.

So there's room for more reality to make its way into Chinese corporate results, and their stock prices.