美国经济出现企稳迹象Signs Point To Stabilizing Economy

为了参加招聘会，新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特的失业者
在排队等公车。

美国经济周四又显现出一些暂时性趋稳的迹象。

多种数据显示出积极迹象。政府宣布，2月份出口出现七个月来首次增长。4月初首次申请失业救济人数降幅超出今年以来的任何一周。

世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)对多家公司首席执行长进行的调查结果显示悲观情绪有所减退。短期公司债券（即商业票据）市场也显示出更多的活力迹象。


Associated Press
为了参加招聘会，新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特的失业者
在排队等公车。与此同时，富国银行(Wells Fargo & Co.)预计第一财季利润将远超预期，这是首家大银行公布业绩相关消息，股市随之大声欢呼。道琼斯指数目前已较五周前的水平上涨了22%。

奥巴马总统周五将与政府经济高管开会，这次会议可能会为不久后对经济实施更激进的举措创造条件。一位政府高级官员说，奥巴马将会了解我们所采取的积极举措的进展情况，以及还需要采取何种措施。

据《华尔街日报》最新的预测调查，经济学家们警告说，认为衰退已经结束现在还为时过早。

周四并非所有的指标都出现上扬。美国几家零售连锁企业宣布3月份销售额较上年下滑，而规模最大的沃尔玛连锁公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)销售额仅增长1.4%，这个数字令人失望。此外，美国2月份进口下滑5.1%，这凸显出世界贸易继续衰退，同时也表明美国消费者也不可能在近期挽救世界经济。

不过，在连月的坏消息之后，最新数据令人振奋，尤其是早先有报导称企业存货数量正在缩减，从而为生产回升创造了条件。

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve，简称：美联储)宣布，已发行商业票据规模本周飙升569亿美元，至1.53万亿美元，这表明美联储吸引谨慎的投资者回归商业票据市场的努力取得了成功。这一消息令投资者大受鼓舞。

奥巴马总统的经济顾问萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)将去年秋天中期以来的美国经济比作是“从桌上滚落的球”。

萨默斯周四对华盛顿经济俱乐部(Washington Economic Club)表示，我认为我们有理由相信危机将在未来数月内结束，我们不会再有那种自由落体的感觉了。

美国劳工部(Labor Department)周四公布，截至4月4日当周首次申请失业救济人数下降2万人，至65.4万人。这一数据被视为反映未来经济活动的指标。四周平均值同样出现下滑。不过，截至3月28日当周持续申请失业救济人数从575万人增至584万人。

商业研究组织世界大型企业联合会的一项调查发现，第一季度各家公司首席执行长的信心有所增强。当季该组织的首席执行长信心指数从2008年第四季度的24上升至30，尽管仍然低于反映正面信心的50关口。高管们仍然预计未来数月就业会进一步下滑。世界大型企业联合会消费者研究中心(Consumer Research Center)主任弗兰克(Lynn Franco)说，CEO们仍然对当前状况持悲观态度，但对短期前景日益乐观。

美国商业部(Commerce Department)表示，2月份出口额增长1.6%，至1,268亿美元，为去年7月以来首次增长。美国制造商向海外出口了更多汽车、药品等消费者商品以及其他产品。但分析师们警告称，鉴于海外经济体表现疲软，这种出口增长可能是短暂的。即便2月份有所回升，美国出口额仍然明显低于此前数月水平。

2月份美国贸易逆差从1月份的362亿美元收窄至260亿美元，为1999年以来的最低水平。受此影响，预测人士纷纷上调了对今年第一季度美国经济产值的预期。预计机构Macroeconomics Advisers表示，美国经济第一季度折合成年率或将收缩4.5%，较此前预期好转了大约1个百分点。
The U.S. economy showed additional tentative signs of stabilization Thursday.

Among the positive indicators, the government said exports rose in February for the first time in seven months. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell more in early April than any week since the start of the year.

A survey of chief executives by the Conference Board found slightly less pessimism. And the market for short-term corporate IOUs, known as commercial paper, showed more signs of life.

The stock market, meanwhile, cheered loudly as the first big bank to offer a glimpse of its first-quarter results, Wells Fargo & Co., said its profits were strong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now up 22% in the past five weeks.

President Barack Obama's meeting Friday with top government economic officials likely will set the stage for more aggressive action soon on the economy. 'He'll be briefed on progress of our aggressive efforts and what more needs to be done,' a senior administration official said.

Economists cautioned that it is premature to call the end of the recession, according to the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.

Not all the arrows pointed up Thursday. Several of the nation's retail chains said March sales were down from a year ago, and the biggest, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., said its sales rose a disappointing 1.4%. Moreover, the report of a 5.1% decline in U.S. imports in February underscored both the continued collapse of world trade and the fact that the U.S. consumer isn't likely to rescue the world economy anytime soon.

Still, after months of bad news, the latest data were encouraging, especially after earlier reports that business inventories are shrinking, setting the stage for a rebound of production.

Investors also were encouraged by the Federal Reserve's report that commercial paper outstanding surged by $56.9 billion this week to $1.53 trillion, a sign that the central bank's efforts to lure wary investors back into that market are succeeding.

Lawrence Summers, President Obama's economic adviser, compared the economy since the middle of last fall to 'a ball falling off a table.'

'I think we can be reasonably confident that that is going to end within the next few months, and we will no longer have that sense of a free-fall,' he told the Washington Economic Club on Thursday.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits, regarded as an indicator of future economic activity, fell 20,000 to 654,000 in the week ended April 4, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly volatility, also fell. Still, the number of workers collecting benefits after their first week jumped to 5.84 million in the week ended March 28 from 5.75 million the prior week.

A survey by the Conference Board, a business research group, found that confidence among chief executive officers improved in the first quarter. The group's CEO Confidence index rose to 30 from 24 in the fourth quarter of 2008, though remained well below the 50 mark that reflects positive sentiment. Executives still expect employment to decline further in the months ahead. 'CEOs remain pessimistic about current conditions, but have grown more optimistic about the short-term outlook,' said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

The Commerce Department said exports rose in February by 1.6% to $126.8 billion -- the first gain since July. U.S. producers sent overseas more autos, consumer goods such as pharmaceuticals and other products. Analysts cautioned that the jump in exports could be short-lived, though, given the weakness of overseas economies. Even after February's rise, U.S. exports remained well below levels in prior months.

The nation's trade deficit narrowed to $26 billion in February from $36.2 billion the month before, the smallest trade gap since November 1999. That led forecasters to mark up their estimates of economic output in the first three months of this year. The forecasting firm Macroeconomics Advisers said the economy contracted at a 4.5% annual rate in the first quarter, about a percentage point better than it had previously predicted.