猪流感恐慌加剧全球经济困境 Flu Fears Add To Troubles

除造成人员死亡外，猪流感疫情的爆发可能给另外一位已经非常虚弱的病人带来灾难，这位患者就是全球经济。

从这个角度来说，造成最大影响的可能是对疫情的恐惧，而非疫情本身。在这种情况下，人们在出门之前会三思而行，政府会实行各种限制。比如2003年当“非典”袭击多伦多的时候，BMO Capital Markets的数据显示，被诊断患有“非典”的人数与被隔离的人数之比达到了1:60。

正当全球各地的人们都在想方设法地保护自己免受
猪流感侵袭时，一些投资者已经准备好迎接疾病蔓
延所带来经济滑坡。图为纽约证交所门前的消毒纸
巾发放机。旅行和娱乐行业显然将是潜在的受害者。为保护机票价格不受需求下跌影响，航空公司已削减了运能。而流感带来的外部冲击可能会使这一策略失效，并可能引发人们呼吁政府实施救助。在欧洲各家航空公司中，英国航空(British Airways)看来将受明显影响，该公司跨大西洋航线占总航线的30%。

投资者面对这种影响，在决定投资方向时或许自然会倾向医药类股和抗跌股。周一医药类股强劲上涨，不过，该类股未必能被证明是个金矿，因为政府在2005年的抗禽流感恐慌后储备了抗病毒药物。比如，英国储备的抗病毒药物足够其半数人口治疗流感症状之用。据世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)称，针对猪流感的疫苗面市至少要到4个月后。

传统的抗跌股也未必能成为明显的赢家。比如，公用事业股已因为工业用电需求下滑而受到损害。再发生干扰性事件对它也未必有帮助。

如果猪流感带来的威胁让许多人呆在家中，则像Netflix和亚马逊(Amazon.com)等网上服务运营商或许有可能受益。不过，现在还不清楚这些公司所依赖的物流网络将在多大程度上出现这样的情况：如果其他所有人都窝在家里，那么为什么投递员就会冒险出门工作呢？

与“非典”或禽流感恐慌不同的是，这次猪流感是在经济承受严重压力的时候出现的。在失业率上升的背景下，对公众安全的威胁成为隐形保护主义的充分借口。世界贸易已面临着自第二次世界大战以来最大速度的下跌。针对全球化的更多障碍可能会进一步加剧这种下跌。出口型新兴经济体可能遭受冲击，对指望得到中国市场救助的工业领域和大宗商品投资者来说，这可不是好消息。当年的“非典”疫情估计让中国国内生产总值减少了1%。

猪流感的威胁或许会很快消退。但它在一个本来就存在不确定性的时候又平添了一层复杂性。在近期的市场上扬行情中，中、小盘股一直表现好于大盘股。如果猪流感导致担忧情绪再次取代贪婪，蓝筹股应能有良好表现。与此同时，如果这次证明不仅是暂时性恐慌，已经全力以赴准备鼓励投资者勇于冒险的决策者将退回到原点。
Quite apart from the human toll, a swine-flu outbreak could wreak havoc on another, already weakened patient: the global economy.

From this perspective, it is fear, rather than the disease itself, that could have the biggest impact. In such situations, individuals think twice about venturing outdoors and governments impose restrictions. When SARS hit Toronto in 2003, for example, for every person diagnosed with the disease, another 60 were quarantined, according to BMO Capital Markets.

Travel and leisure industries are obvious potential casualties. Airlines have been cutting capacity already to protect ticket prices from falling demand. An exogenous shock in the form of flu could overwhelm this strategy -- and perhaps fuel calls for a government bailout. Of European airlines, British Airways looks exposed, given 30% of its routes cross the Atlantic.

Investors positioning for the fallout might naturally head for pharmaceutical and defensive sectors. Pharma stocks gained strongly Monday. However, the sector won't necessarily prove a gold mine, since governments stockpiled antiviral drugs after 2005's avian-flu scare. The U.K., for example, has enough antiviral medication stockpiled to treat half the population for flu symptoms. A vaccine remains at least four months away, according to the World Health Organization.

Traditional defensives also aren't clear winners. Utilities, for example, are already being hurt by falling industrial demand for electricity. Further disruption wouldn't help.

If the swine-flu threat kept many people at home, online-service operators such as Netflix and Amazon.com might be expected to benefit. Against that, however, it is unclear how robust the logistics networks those companies depend on would be in such a scenario: Why would mailmen venture out to work if everyone else was housebound?

Unlike the SARS or avian-flu scares, swine flu has emerged during severe economic stress. Threats to public safety make good cover for stealth protectionism at a time of rising unemployment. World trade already faces its fastest decline since World War II. Further barriers to globalization could sharpen this even more. Export-focused emerging economies could suffer -- bad news for industrial-sector and commodities investors looking toward China for salvation. The SARS outbreak is estimated to have cost 1% of China's gross domestic product.

The swine-flu threat may fade quickly. But it adds one more layer of complexity at an already-uncertain time. In the recent market rally, small- and midcapitalization stocks have performed better than large-caps. If swine flu causes fear to displace greed once again, blue chips ought to fare better. Meanwhile, should this prove to be more than a temporary scare, policy makers who have pulled out all the stops already to encourage risk-taking will be back to square one.