大宗商品走势有别 黄金依然风头不减Quarterly Markets Review: Gold Retains Its Allure

OPEC在3月15日会议上决定维持产量配额不变

随着第一季度的结束，大宗商品价格的暴跌看来终于要告一段落了。但大宗商品价格能否持续反弹可能要取决于经济快速复苏的前景。

OPEC在3月15日会议上决定维持产量配额不变在去年下半年跌去逾50%之后，随着全球经济继续收缩，道琼斯-美国国际集团大宗商品指数在2009年初进一步下跌。到3月2日时，该指数累计下跌了13%，此后美国政府刺激经济和稳定金融系统的大规模计划推动了硬资产市场的反弹。对通货膨胀和减产的担忧加剧也为季度末的上涨推波助澜。

随着经济疲弱的证据不断显现，最初的热情也一点点消磨。道琼斯-美国国际集团大宗商品指数第一季度累计下跌了6.4%。

一直被视为糟糕市况避险天堂的黄金成为整个季度炙手可热的商品。随着全球陷入衰退，对冲基金、退休基金和紧张不安的个人投资者将数十亿美元投入到了黄金市场之中。第一季度金价上涨了4.4%，至每盎司922.60美元，一度非常接近2008年3月创出的每盎司1,003.20美元的历史高点。通常波动性高于黄金的白银在去年大幅下挫后，今年第一季度上涨了15%。

许多去年遭受重创的大宗商品今年的涨幅都令人吃惊，尽管比较基数偏低。原油价格上涨了11%，至每桶49.66美元，汽油期货上涨了39%。铜上涨了32%。

受全球需求疲软和产量增加拖累，农产品价格出现下跌：玉米价格下滑0.6%，大豆价格下跌2.1%，小麦价格下降13%。

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)旗下资产管理公司DB Advisors的全球大宗商品主管古斯曼(Theresa Gusman)说，刺激支出最终会推动大宗商品市场反弹。我们认为2009年的情况将与2008年正好相反。她表示，一些大宗商品已经开始出现回升。

其他分析师则不相信这种政策引导的涨势能长期持续。他们表示，大宗商品的强劲复苏需要工业产值的回升。即便所有的救助计划都已实施，信贷市场的解冻和实际经济活动的复苏也需要时日。

巴克莱(Barclays Capital)分析师近期发布报告称，除非政府举措有效拉动了需求，从而为大宗商品复苏提供了稳定基础，否则这样的价格涨势将是脆弱的。

整体经济形势仍然愁云惨淡。今年1月份，国际货币基金组织(IMF)将今年全球经济增长预期大幅下调至0.5%，为二战以来最低增速，低于去年11月预期的2.2%。经济增长放缓意味着能源、金属和农产品的需求下滑。美国能源情报署(EIA)在3月份报告中，将今年全球石油消费量预期下调至每天8,427万桶，较去年减少了140万桶。

MF Global大宗商品分析师梅尔(Edward Meir)说，许多大宗商品已经开始开辟各自的交易区间，今年许多时候我们将开始看到价格呈现盘整趋势。现在还没到开香槟庆祝的时候。

不过，一些因素可能会推动大宗商品价格继续上涨。信贷危机已经打击了矿业公司开设新矿的能力。石油和一些贱金属的减产将影响到供应面，缓解许多大宗商品价格的下行压力。


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金价在第一季度上涨了4.4%石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称:欧佩克)各成员国已经将原油日产量减少了420万桶，约占全球每日供应总量的5%，执行了欧佩克承诺减产量的80%左右。由于油价在本季度初跌破每桶50美元，欧佩克成员国令人惊讶地严格遵守了减产协议，在一定程度上遏制了油价跌势。欧佩克在3月份的会议上决定不进行再次减产，担心油价走高可能会冲击到疲软的全球经济，影响到需求状况。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的一份报告称，在各种金属中，今年第一季度铝和镊的减产幅度最大，矿山关闭导致两种金属全球供应量分别减少了13%和17%。

未来的供应前景也面临着风险，因为很多生产商大举削减了各自的资本支出。德意志银行的古斯曼说，单是美国今年的能源勘探和开采支出预计就会减少225亿美元，较上年下降40%。

Van Eck Global Hard Assets Fund基金经理Derek van Eck说，有关价格会因减产而继续上行的观点说服力正越来越大。

中国正在大举囤积大宗商品，这也推高了价格。中国持有充裕现金，但却资源紧缺。最近几个月，北京一直在大举买进铜、石油和大豆等中国缺少的大宗商品，最近还表示打算再斥资100亿美元增加大宗商品库存，较原计划规模增加了60%。

但一些分析师警告称，这种储备并不是实际需求，如果价格上涨到一定程度，导致北京开始动用储备而不是继续买入，那么情况就会很快出现逆转。

与此同时，大宗商品投资者对购买的商品类别更加有眼光。巴克莱大宗商品分析师诺里斯(Kevin Norrish)说，与前几年在价格飙升时大举涌入广泛指数基金的情况不同，第一季度追踪贵金属和能源的场内交易产品占据了几乎所有的净流入资金。

诺里斯说，不同大宗商品之间存在着很多不同和分化的趋势。投资者正更加专注于某一大宗商品市场，寻求采取更为主动的投资策略。

举一个例子来说：在油价回升的同时，库存增加，取暖需求减少，以及可能进口更多液化天然气给天然气价格带来下行压力，今年第一季度价格下跌了33%。

It appeared that big declines in commodities prices finally may have run their course as the first quarter came to an end. But whether it can be a sustained rally could depend on the prospects for a quick economic turnaround.

The Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index, after falling more than 50% in last year's second half, continued to slide at the start of 2009 as the global economy kept contracting. It was down 13% through March 2, before the U.S. government's aggressive plans to stimulate the economy and bolster the financial system helped rekindle depressed markets for hard assets. Escalating fears of inflation and production cuts also contributed to late-quarter gains.

Initial enthusiasm faded in light of mounting evidence of economic weakness. The index ended the first quarter down 6.4%.

Gold, traditionally viewed as the ultimate safe haven in troubled times, was the hot commodity throughout the quarter. Hedge funds, pension plans and jittery individuals poured billions of dollars into the yellow metal as recession gripped the world. Gold gained 4.4% in the first quarter, to $922.60 a troy ounce, and at one point came within sight of its March 2008 record of $1,003.20. Silver, which usually is more volatile than gold, soared 15% after big declines last year.

Many commodities that took a beating last year posted eye-popping gains, albeit from a low base. Crude oil rose 11% to $49.66 a barrel, and gasoline futures jumped 39%. Copper gained 32%.

Agricultural products fell in the face of weaker demand and bigger crops around the world: corn fell 0.6%, soybeans gave up 2.1%, and wheat skidded 13%.

'Stimulus spending will eventually lead to a rebound in commodities,' said Theresa Gusman, head of global commodities at DB Advisors, the asset-management arm of Deutsche Bank. 'We think 2009 will be a mirror image of 2008.' She noted that some commodities have already started to come back.

Other analysts aren't convinced that this policy-fueled rally can continue for long. A solid recovery in commodities, they say, will require a pickup in industrial production. Even with all of the rescue plans in place, it takes time for credit markets to thaw and revive real economic activity.

'Such rallies will be fragile until government measures gain traction in supporting demand, thereby providing a solid base for recovery,' Barclays Capital analysts wrote in a recent report.

The overall economic picture still looks bleak. In January, the International Monetary Fund sharply cut its forecast for global growth this year to 0.5%, the weakest since World War II and down from its November estimate of 2.2%. Slower economic expansion means less demand for energy, metals and agricultural products. In its March report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its expectations for this year's global oil consumption to 84.27 million barrels a day, a drop of 1.4 million barrels from 2008.

'Many commodities have started to carve out their trading ranges, and we'll start to see sideways movements for much of this year,' said Edward Meir, a commodities analyst at MF Global. 'I wouldn't break out the champagne yet.'

Still, there are factors that could contribute to further gains. The credit crunch has hampered mining companies' ability to open new mines. Cuts in production of oil and some base metals will affect supplies, which reduces the downside risk in many commodities prices.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have implemented reductions of 4.2 million barrels a day, or 5% of the world's total supply, about 80% of the group's pledged reductions. As oil fell below $50 a barrel early in the quarter, the surprisingly high compliance helped stem the drop in prices. At its March meeting, OPEC decided not to seek a new cut in production targets, fearing that higher oil prices might hurt the vulnerable global economy and affect demand.

Among metals, aluminum and nickel saw the biggest production cuts in the first quarter, according to a Credit Suisse report, with mine closures accounting for 13% and 17% of their global supplies, respectively.

Future supplies also are at stake, as many producers aggressively scaled back their capital expenditures. In the U.S. alone, energy exploration and production spending is estimated to drop $22.5 billion this year, a 40% year-on-year decline, said Ms. Gusman at Deutsche Bank.

'Every day, the depletion argument [for further price gains] becomes more powerful,' said Derek van Eck, who manages Van Eck Global Hard Assets Fund.

Massive stockpiling of commodities by China, a cash-rich but resource-hungry country, also has pushed up prices. In recent months, Beijing has been snapping up commodities it lacks, such as copper, oil and soybeans, and recently said it would spend an extra $10 billion to bulk up its commodity inventories, a 60% rise from its original plan.

But some analysts warn that the hoarding isn't real demand and can quickly turn around if prices rise enough that Beijing starts to use the reserves instead of buying more in the market.

Meanwhile, commodity investors have become more discerning about which commodities they buy. In contrast with prior years' heady influx into broad index funds as prices soared, exchange-traded products that track precious metals and energy accounted for nearly all of the net inflows in the latest quarter, said Kevin Norrish, a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.

'There are a lot of different and diverging trends between different commodities,' Mr. Norrish said. 'Investors are seeking more active strategies with a greater focus on individual commodity markets.'

One example: As oil prices rose, higher storage levels, faltering heating demand and the risk of more liquefied-natural-gas imports put downward pressure on natural-gas prices, which closed the quarter with a 33% drop.