美国股市“恐慌性上扬”前景如何？Yes, the Market's Up 23% … Feeling Lucky?

自2007年10月熊市开始以来，市场曾出现过几次恐慌性下跌。但现在，似乎出现了相反的情况，那就是：恐慌性上扬。

最近数周，投资者纷纷涌向股市，推动股市突如其来地上涨，这让一些市场悲观人士直挠头，而且忍不住想跟着买进，因为担心他们在新一轮牛市开始时会错过机会。


摩根士丹利(J.P. Morgan)证券策略师Thomas Lee最近对客户表示，股票3月份以来未出现过有意义的回撤，我们感到有点担忧。虽然Lee相对而言还属于看涨派，但他在决定向市场投入更多资金前，一直在等待市场回调至少10%。（道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上周小幅回落0.7%。）

如果股票已经触及底部，并处于新一轮持续牛市，那么买进股票将是一个明智的举动，即使它们自3月9日以来已经上涨了大约23%。不过，悲观派警告说，市场曾在去年11月至今年1月间出现过类似的上扬行情，但之后再次跌至新低。他们认为，这是又一次熊市中的上涨，而且接下来仍将会出现新低。

以下是投资者可以参考的看涨派和看跌派的一些主要观点：

看涨派：经济形势最糟糕的时候已经过去

这可能是对的。企业采购经理人调查数据、有关全球货运价格的波罗的海干散货航运指数等领先指标在2008年底的时候直线下跌，而最近已经开始回升，虽然只是小幅上扬。

3月底时，首次申请失业救济人数或许已经触顶。平均而言，这个指标通常会较衰退结束提前两个月出现这种情况。

所有这些经济指标现在所处水平仍显示经济极度疲弱。但经济在开始再次增长之前必须先停止下滑，而股市通常会在经济彻底好转之前就早早开始反弹。

看跌派：复苏将是虚弱的

不幸的是，这种看法可能也是对的。金融危机、市场垮塌和深度衰退造成的损害将是持久的，并将对经济的长期增长造成影响。

这场衰退降临之际，美国家庭背负着巨额债务，这种情况是银行业承担太多风险、发展规模过大造成的一个后果。现在，金融领域正在迅速萎缩，但消费者仍未能摆脱大部分债务。与此同时，到明年，失业率很有可能升至10%，从而损害美国家庭支付那些债务的能力。

如果消费者开支持续走软，那么，经济增长──以及延伸而来的企业利润和股票市场──都将弱于最近几十年的水平。

看涨派：投资者开始承担更多风险

据贸易团体Investment Company Institute的数字，自从最新这波股市上扬开始以来，投资者从货币市场共同基金撤出的资金已经接近1,000亿美元。这意味着他们正在将资金从场外投向股市、债市和其他市场，这是一个积极的信号。

相比之下，在去年11月至今年1月的上涨中，投资者将超过2,000亿美元资金投向了货币市场基金。

而且，据ICI的数据，货币市场基金仍有大约3.8万亿美元现金，这表明，还有大量资金可用来将股市不断推高。

看跌派：大多数投资者仍很谨慎，并将维持这种心态

根据ICI的数据，尽管有大量资金流出货币基金，但只有100亿美元流向美国股票基金，几乎谈不上无节制地承受风险。

而且，许多投资者在接下来的很长一段时间将坐拥更多现金而不出手。由于住房和股票价格大跌，他们在过去一年遭受了重大损失。

TrimTabs Investment Research全球股票策略师德鲁阿德(Vincent Deluard)说，只有到市场反弹超过30%以后，人们才会相信，市场是个可以安全进入的地方。TrimTabs也跟踪资金流动数据。

看涨派：按历史水平衡量，现在市场很便宜

衡量股价有多贵的一个最常用方法是看股价对公司每股收益的比值。毕竟，股票是获取企业未来收益的权利凭证。相对于华尔街对2009年企业每股收益的普遍预期，标普500指数现在的市盈率为14倍，低于16倍的长期平均市盈率水平。

而且，在连续多月削减2009年收益预期之后，分析师现在开始调高预期。从理论上讲，企业盈利越高，股价就应该升得越高。

Yardeni Research投资策略总监亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)说，显示衰退结束、企业利润开始回升的更多迹象将对维持这波上扬行情大有帮助。

看跌派：历史经验显示股价还会更便宜

过去的大熊市──比如三十年代和七十年代的熊市──都是到股价市盈率跌至个位数之后才结束的。到那时候，股票会很不受人喜欢，成为真正的便宜货。而目前这种情况尚未发生。看跌派认为，现在还有太多的投资者说现在是绝好的买进机会，这就表明现在还不是买进的真正绝好机会。

消费者保持谨慎，金融业继续萎缩，这些因素表明，有充分理由相信在不久的将来还可以用更低的价钱买到股票。

最后的结论是什么？Sundial Capital Research总裁杰福特(Jason Goepfert)说，有可能我们目前正处在类似2003年4月那样的形势，在我们摆脱熊市的过程中，我们将不断推高市场。不过，我并不愿意在这种可能性上下赌注。
There have been several panicky stock selloffs since the bear market began in October 2007. Now the opposite seems to be happening: a panicky rally.

Investors have piled into stocks in recent weeks, propelling an out-of-nowhere run that has some market pessimists scratching their heads -- and getting itchy to buy, for fear they're missing out on the start of a new bull market.

'We are feeling a bit anxious as equities have not pulled back meaningfully since March,' J.P. Morgan equity strategist Thomas Lee told clients recently. Though relatively bullish, Mr. Lee has been waiting for a market correction of at least 10% before putting more money into the market. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average did give up a little ground last week, falling 0.7%.)

If stocks have already hit their bottom and are in a new, lasting bull market, then buying them would be the smart move, even though they have already risen some 23% since March 9. Pessimists warn, however, that the market went on a very similar run from November to January before sinking again to new lows. This is another such bear-market rally, they believe, and new lows are still on the way.

Here are key arguments for investors to weigh:

THE BULLS SAY: The worst is over for the economy.

This is probably true. Leading indicators such as surveys of corporate purchasing managers and the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs were in free-fall in late 2008, but have recently turned up, if only slightly.

Weekly claims for unemployment benefits may have peaked in late March, an event that typically precedes the end of a recession by two months, on average.

All of these economic dials are still pegged at levels pointing to very deep weakness in the economy. But the economy has to stop falling before it can start growing again, and stocks typically start rebounding long before the economy is completely well.

THE BEARS SAY: The recovery will be anemic.

Unfortunately, this is probably true, too. The damage done by the financial crisis, market meltdown and deep recession will be lasting and has implications for the economy's long-term growth.

U.S. households came into this recession with a mountain of debt, a situation enabled by a banking sector that took on too many risks and got too big. Now the financial sector is shrinking fast, but consumers still have much of that debt mountain. Meanwhile, unemployment could very well rise as high as 10% by next year, hurting households' ability to pay down those debts.

If consumer spending continues weak, economic growth -- and, by extension, corporate profits and the stock market -- will be weaker than in recent decades.

THE BULLS SAY: Investors are taking more risks.

Investors have pulled nearly $100 billion out of money-market mutual funds since the latest stock-market rally began, according to the Investment Company Institute trade group. That implies they are pulling their cash from the sidelines and putting it to work in stock, bond and other markets, which is a bullish sign.

During the November-to-January rally, in contrast, investors poured more than $200 billion into money-market funds.

Moreover, there is still some $3.8 trillion of cash in money-market funds, according to ICI data, suggesting there is plenty of fuel to keep stocks moving higher and higher.

THE BEARS SAY: Most investors are still cautious and will stay that way.

While money has come out of money funds, only $10 billion has gone to U.S.-stock funds, according to ICI data -- hardly rampant risk-taking.

And many investors, having lost big in the past year due to plunging home and stock prices, will be sitting on more cash for a long time to come.

'It will take more than a 30% bounce to really convince people the market is a safe place to go,' says Vincent Deluard, global equity strategist at TrimTabs Investment Research, which also tracks fund-flow data.

THE BULLS SAY: The market is historically cheap.

The most common way of measuring how expensive stocks are is to weigh prices against corporate profits. After all, stocks are just claims on future earnings. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index currently trades at 14 times the consensus Wall Street forecast for earnings per share in 2009, below its long-term average price/earnings ratio of 16.

What's more, after months of slashing their forecasts for 2009 earnings, analysts have recently started raising them again. The higher the profits, the higher stock prices should rise, theoretically.

'More signs that the recession is ending and that profits are turning up would be very helpful' in keeping the rally going, says Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research.

THE BEARS SAY: History suggests it should get cheaper.

Major bear markets in the past -- think the 1930s and the 1970s -- have not ended until the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 gets down to single digits. By that time, stocks are deeply unloved, making them real bargains. That hasn't happened yet. There are still too many investors calling this a great buying opportunity for this to truly be a great buying opportunity, say the bears.

And factors including a cautious consumer and a shrinking financial sector suggest there may be good reason to pay less for stocks in the near future.

THE BOTTOM LINE? 'It's possible that we're in an April 2003 kind of place and we'll just keep steaming higher as we emerge from the bear market,' says Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. 'I'm not comfortable betting on that possibility.'

MARK GONGLOFF