全球股市终于分道扬镳 Finally, Global Markets Are Going Their Own Ways

全球股市正走上不同的道路，这和去年的全线暴跌形成了鲜明对比。

2009年前3个月，全球股市表现大不相同，从糟糕、到中等、到强劲悬殊很大。中国和巴西等发展中国家的股市远远超过了美国和欧洲等发达国家。

这和去年底明显不同，当时全球股市齐齐下挫，区别只在于降多降少而已。

虽然一个季度的数据并不代表已形成一种趋势，但股市的不同表现却可能说明，笼罩全球投资者的担忧从某种程度上有所缓解。他们不再不加选择地抛售股票，而是在努力识别，如果暂时性的经济复苏持续下去（即使今年的经济前景依然黯淡），全球哪些股票会获利。

投资管理公司Trilogy Global Advisors首席投资长斯特林(William Sterling)说，这或许表明我们已经走出危机的“急性期”，进入了“慢性期”。这家公司管理着85亿美元的全球股票。


Tim Bower道琼斯全球指数（不包括美国股票）第一季度跌12%（以美元计算），而道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数则跌了13%。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)跟踪新兴市场股市的指数以美元计算上涨0.5%，以当地货币计算上涨4%。

在经受去年的打击之后，新兴市场表现尤其好。巴西和俄罗斯的基准股指以当地货币计算均上涨了9%，印度股市也进入上涨区间。中国本土股市（外国投资者基本不能投资）是表现最突出的，上证综合指数飙升30%（去年跌了65%）。

美银证券-美林(Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch)国际投资策略部负责人之一哈特奈特(Michael Hartnett)说，三个因素加在一起支撑了新兴市场：中国经济表现出企稳的迹象、新兴市场金融类股相对强劲、3月份一些投资者迅速回归高风险投资产品。

表现居中的是日本和加拿大等国家的股市，它们的跌幅没有美国那么大。日经225指数跌8%，加拿大S&P/TSX综合指数跌3%。

在欧洲，第一季度股市的跌幅与美国不相上下或者更严重，德国、法国和英国的基准股指跌幅达11%-15%。

不出所料的是，全球表现最糟糕的是金融类股，据摩根士丹利追踪一系列全球股市的指数显示，截至周一，以美元计算金融类股已累计跌了24%。不过，没有哪个类股的表现算得上可圈可点。表现最好的是信息技术类股，上涨了0.6%，其次是材料类股，跌了3.7%。

对美国投资者来说，美元真是个眼中钉、肉中刺。美元强劲走强，尽管在季度末时有所减弱。美元的走强侵蚀了来自海外股票的盈利，让损失显得更严重，因为季度末时大部分外币购买美元的量减少了。

全球股市的不同表现向投资者提出了一个挑战。如果去年底金融市场的普遍抛售和大幅动荡再次出现的话，市场走势可能会再次一致起来。如果全球股市表现差异持续下去，那么辨别出相对的“赢家”和“输家”将变得越来越重要。

荷兰国际集团投资管理公司(ING Investment Management)驻纽约高级投资组合经理兰德斯曼(Uri Landesman)说，如果股市的企稳能持续一段时间的话，你就会看到各股市开始“分道扬镳”；涨潮可能会大部分船只都被抬高，但是程度并不相同。

兰德斯曼看好加拿大和巴西等股市，他说对石油等大宗商品的全球需求不断企稳，价格出现反弹，这些股市有从中获利的优势。

其他基金经理说，他们认为有理由相信美国和亚洲股市比欧洲要好。原因是美国政府对危机做出的大规模应对措施将获得更多的支持，导致去年大幅下挫的亚洲出口产品部分出现反弹。

此外，投资管理公司Federated Investors全球股市首席投资长奥斯(Stephen Auth)说，亚洲企业和经济体的资产负债状况让它们可以撑过危机。他负责管理280亿美元资产。

奥斯说，本季度公司一直在把国际投资组合中的资金从欧洲转移到亚洲。他还说，他的公司更看好美国股票，而不是更广泛的国际股票，主要是因为公司不看好欧洲股市，而欧洲股市占了非美国基准股指的很大一部分。

他说，我们认为中国和美国比欧洲涨得更快，总体来讲情况更好。原因之一是欧洲不知道自己的状况有多糟。

欧洲的一个优势是：股价偏低。花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师在最近公布的一份报告中建议，投资者持有的欧洲和英国股票超过根据基准股指来看应有的水平，就是因为欧洲股票便宜。据花旗的数据显示，截至3月中旬，欧洲股票基于2009年预期收益的市盈率是9倍，而相比之下，北美和亚洲（除日本外）的预期市盈率为12倍。

Global stock markets are striking out on separate paths, in contrast to last year's universal collapse.

There was a wide divergence in markets' performance in first three months of 2009, with results ranging from poor to middling to stellar. Shares in developing countries like China and Brazil well outpaced those from developed regions like the U.S. and Europe.

That is a marked change from late last year, when global stocks crumpled in unison and the only disparity was between different intensities of awful.

While one quarter doesn't make a trend, the divergence could be a sign that some of the fear gripping investors around the world is abating. No longer selling shares indiscriminately, investors are trying to identify which stocks world-wide will profit if a tentative economic recovery takes hold, even if the economic picture for this year remains grim.

'Maybe it's indicative that we're out of the acute phase of the crisis and into more of a chronic phase,' says William Sterling, chief investment officer of Trilogy Global Advisors, which manages $8.5 billion of global shares.

The Dow Jones World index, excluding U.S. shares, fell 12% in dollar terms in the quarter, compared with the 13% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A Morgan Stanley index tracking emerging-market stocks rose 0.5% in dollar terms and 4% in local-currency terms.

After taking a drubbing last year, emerging markets fared particularly well. The benchmark indexes of Brazil and Russia both jumped 9% in local-currency terms, while India's edged into positive territory. China's domestic stocks -- largely off limits to foreign investors -- led the pack, with the Shanghai Composite surging 30% (it fell 65% last year).

Michael Hartnett, co-head of international investment strategy at Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch, says three elements combined to support emerging markets: signs the Chinese economy was stabilizing; the relative strength of financial shares in these markets; and the rapid return by some investors to riskier investments in March.

In the middling category were markets such as Japan and Canada, where declines were more modest compared to the U.S. Japan's Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies fell 8% while Canada's S&P/TSX Composite fell 3%.

In Europe, the quarterly declines were in tune with, or worse than, in the U.S., with benchmark indexes in Germany, France and the U.K. falling 11% to 15%.

Not surprisingly, the sector that fared the worst world-wide was financials, which had fallen 24% as of Monday in dollar terms based on a Morgan Stanley index that covers a wide swath of global stocks. Still, no sector really shone. The best-performing sectors were information technology, which eked out a rise of 0.6%, followed by materials, down 3.7%.

For U.S. investors, the dollar was a thorn in the side. The buck notched a solid advance, despite flagging at the end of the quarter. That strength cut into any profit from overseas shares and magnified any losses, since most foreign currencies bought fewer dollars at the end of the quarter.

The differing performance among global markets presents a challenge for investors. If some of the widespread selling and extreme volatility that characterized financial markets late last year returns, then markets once again could move in lockstep. If the divergence continues, then getting relative winners and losers right will become increasingly important.

'You will see a disconnection between markets' if shares manage to stabilize for a sustained period, says Uri Landesman, a senior portfolio manager at ING Investment Management in New York. 'The rising tide may lift most boats, but not equally.'

Mr. Landesman likes such markets as Canada and Brazil, which he says are well-positioned to benefit from a rebound in the prices of commodities like oil on the back of stabilizing global demand.

Other fund managers say they see reasons to favor shares in the U.S. and Asia over Europe. The logic is that the massive U.S. government response to the crisis will gain traction, leading to a bounce in some of the Asian exports that fell off a cliff last year.

What is more, 'Asian companies and economies have the balance sheet to survive this thing,' says Stephen Auth, chief investment officer for global equities at Federated Investors, who oversees $28 billion.

Mr. Auth says that over the course of this quarter his firm has been moving money in its international portfolios to Asia from Europe. He adds that the firm favors U.S. shares over international shares more broadly, largely because it is bearish on European stocks, and they account for a significant proportion of the non-U.S. benchmark index.

'We think 'Chimerica' is moving more quickly, and in general is in better shape, than Europe,' he says, 'Partly because Europe doesn't know what bad shape it's in.'

One factor in Europe's favor: shares are trading at cheap prices. A recent report from Citigroup analysts recommended that investors own more European and British shares than suggested by a benchmark index for precisely that reason. As of mid-March, such stocks were trading at nine times estimated 2009 per-share earnings, according to Citigroup, compared with 12 times for North American shares and Asian shares outside Japan.