富国银行业绩果真那么出色?Is Wells Really as Well As It Looks?
本文涉及股票或公司
富国银行(Wells Fargo)给了卖空者突发一击。那些盼着长周末因此在周三晚间就离市的投资者周四肯定过的很不爽。富国银行预先公布的第一财季业绩表现异常出色,带动该股在盘中交易一度飙升34%。
富国银行当季每股收益55美分,远远超过市场预计的每股收益23美分,推动市场再次普遍上扬。富国银行当季业绩中,醒目的强劲抵押贷款需求也给美国银行(Bank of America)等其他主要住房贷款商股价带来了神奇影响。
不过,富国银行的业绩公布正赶上纽约市场交投清淡的一个交易日。包括收入组合和不良资产趋势在内的关键业绩细节仍然要两个星期之后才能公布。目前还不清楚市场的业绩预期在多大程度上包括了去年12月收购Wachovia Bank相关支出的影响。投资公司Fox-Pitt Kelton分析师马夸尔迪(Andrew Marquardt)预计,富国银行当季不包括并购支出的每股收益为45美分。按照这个水平来看,富国银行当季收益仍然高于市场预期,只是超出预期程度有所下降。
此外,富国银行在收购Wachovia时提前计入了相关帐面损失,因此带来的第一财季净冲销率下降也令银行受益。
利润增加给一些分析师带来了信心,他们相信银行能够自行走出资产负债问题。但即便如此,避开灾难并不代表银行类股就会迎来持续涨势。面临着房价不断下滑、失业日益严重的黯淡大环境,困难和挑战四处潜伏。而且,在股价上涨之后大举融资以遏制挥之不去的资产负债担忧情绪,这招仍然是个未知数。
Wells Fargo has served up a sucker punch to short sellers. Those who left their desks Wednesday evening looking forward to a long weekend must have spent an uncomfortable Thursday. Wells's surprisingly positive preannouncement of first-quarter earnings caused its stock to jump as much as 34% in intraday trading.
The sheer size of the gap between Wells's headline figure of 55 cents a share and a consensus estimate of 23 cents helped reignite a broad market rally. Wells's highlighting of strong mortgage demand also did wonders for the shares of other big home lenders like Bank of America.
Wells's announcement, however, came on a day of thin trading in New York. Crucial details -- including revenue mix and nonperforming asset trends -- are still almost two weeks away. It isn't clear how far the consensus estimate includes the impact of charges relating to December's Wachovia Bank takeover. Fox-Pitt Kelton analyst Andrew Marquardt was estimating earnings before merger expenses of 45 cents a share. On that basis, Wells still outperformed -- just not as significantly.
Upfront realization of losses on Wachovia's books at the time of the acquisition, because of purchase accounting, also provides a benefit to Wells through a lower net charge-off rate in the first quarter.
Higher profits lend strength to those analysts who believe the banks can earn their way out of their balance-sheet problems. Even so, 'catastrophe averted' is no guarantee of a sustainable rally. Challenges lurk all over in an environment of falling house prices and rising unemployment. Moreover, proactive capital raisings on the back of share-price rallies, to face down lingering balance-sheet fears, remain a wild card.
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