美股本轮反弹仍有可能是场空欢喜It's Starting To Look a Lot Like November

股市最近的升势令人欣喜。哈，至少从去年11月起，股市还从未这样上涨过。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数在19个交易日内反弹了22.5%，创下1938年以来19个交易日内涨幅之最。反映面更广的标准普尔500指数在这一时间段内也跃升了24.5%。

在这一片欢欣中人们很容易忘记，2008年11月那次短暂的触底反弹也几乎像此次股市反弹一样强劲。如果与截至上周四的本轮股市反弹相比，去年11月份那次反弹的幅度更大，标准普尔500指数在17个交易日内上涨了21%，而该指数此次反弹在17个交易日内上涨了20%。11月份那次反弹延续到了今年1月初，但此后股市却急转直下，连创12年新低。

为什么此次反弹可能有所不同？

原因之一是，去年11月那次股市反弹的基础比较脆弱。盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)将被当选总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)提名出任财政部长的消息引发了那次反弹。对盖特纳的提名令华尔街欣喜，至少能让它高兴上一会。美国政府其他一些举措也对这轮反弹起了推波助澜作用，比如政府对花旗集团(Citigroup)的大规模救助，以及政府有关要让本国汽车生产商免于破产的表态等。而美国政府对这些问题的态度目前已与那时迥然不同。

去年11月股市反弹时美国经济仍深陷困境。汽车销售、工业生产、消费者支出等方面的数据绝对算得上本轮经济衰退开始以来最差的。而自那以来，这三项数据再加上新屋开工数都显示出了止跌企稳迹象。

但支撑此次股市回升的脚手架也包括一些仅存在于希望中的东西。有关美国一些大银行今年1、2月份实现盈利的消息引发了本轮股市上涨。但两个月不等同于一个季度，而且有迹象显示银行业3月份的状况出现了恶化。

美国财务会计标准委员会(Financial Accounting Standards Board)也为本轮股市上涨助了一臂之力，该机构放宽了按市值计价的会计准则，放宽的时机恰好让各银行在计算第一季度业绩时可以照此办理。但这一放宽造成了有可能模糊各银行真实价值的风险，从而使投资者在买入银行类股前三思而行。

有关方面对恢复加价规则的讨论也对本轮股市上扬行情的延续起了推动作用。加价规则要求投资者必须等到某只股票的价格上涨后才可卖空该股。但多年来的研究并未能提供这一规则有助于避免股市大跌的有效证据，而去年试行的股市卖空禁令也未能阻止股价的大幅下挫。

本轮股市反弹最可靠的推动力是经济已经触底的迹象。但即使这些迹象也仅表明美国经济正在一个非常低的水平上触底，未必意味着经济会迅速复苏。每周首次申请失业救济人数仍在上升。反映全球船运成本的波罗的海干散货航运指数过去18天中一直在下跌，目前已较年内高点下跌了近35%。投资级企业债券的收益率目前仍与最高水平相差无几，这表明信贷供应依然吃紧。

尽管道琼斯指数最近表现抢眼，但它今年以来仍累计下跌了9%，较历史最高水平低43%。

虽然本轮股市反弹可能不会是去年11月那次的翻版，不过它仍具有熊市反弹的特点。
The recent stock-market rally is turning heads. Why, there hasn't been anything like it since at least . . . November.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has bounced 22.5% in 19 trading days, the best such stretch since 1938. The broader S&P 500 has jumped 24.5% during that time.

Amid the cheer it is easy to forget that the short-lived bounce off the market's November 2008 bottom was nearly as strong as this one. Until this past Thursday, November's rally was bigger, with the S&P 500 up 21% in 17 days, compared with 20% for the current bounce. The earlier surge carried through to early January, but then fell off a cliff to hit 12-year lows.

Why might this time be different?

For one thing, the November rally was based on flimsier stuff. It was sparked by the announcement that Timothy Geithner would be then-President-elect Barack Obama's Treasury secretary, a choice that pleased Wall Street, at least for a while. It was helped along by other government actions, including a massive Citigroup bailout and talks about keeping auto makers from bankruptcy. The government's approaches to those problems are dramatically different now.

The economy was also in a deeper hole during that bounce, which included some of the absolute worst days for auto sales, industrial production and consumer spending, among other things, during this recession. Since then all three, along with housing data, have shown signs they are no longer falling into the abyss.

But this rally's scaffolding includes wishful thinking, too. It was launched by word that some big banks were profitable in January and February. Two months do not a quarter make, and banks indicated conditions got tougher in March.

Stocks got another hand from the Financial Accounting Standards Board, which relaxed mark-to-market accounting rules just in time to boost first-quarter bank results. But the move risks obscuring these banks' true worth, something that should make investors think twice.

This rally was also perpetuated by talk of a revival of the uptick rule mandating that short-sellers can't short a stock unless its price is rising. But years of research have produced little evidence to support the idea that the rule helps avoid sharp swoons, and last year's experiment in banishing shorts did not stop a market collapse.

The most credible drivers of this rally are hints of an economic bottom. But even these tell of a bottoming at a very low level, not necessarily a quick recovery. Weekly jobless claims are still rising. The Baltic Dry index of global shipping costs, has fallen for the past 18 days and is off nearly 35% from its high of the year. Investment-grade corporate bond yields are still not much off their highs, a sign credit is still tight.

For all its vigor, the Dow is still down 9% for the year and 43% from its record high.

While this bounce might not mirror November's, it still has the hallmarks of a bear-market rally.