欧洲黯淡前景威胁全球复苏 Europe's Grim Outlook Challenges World Recovery

较之美国或全球其他地区，欧洲经济面临着更为严重的衰退和更为缓慢的复苏之路；这使得欧洲成为最拖累全球经济下滑提前结束的地区。

根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)周三公布的新预计报告，欧盟经济今年会收缩4%，下滑幅度甚至大于美国经济预期的2.8%。

伦敦的求职者正在仔细查看招工信息周三，英国也公布了一份预算案，其中国债增幅创下了二战以来之最。欧洲最大经济体德国经济今年第一季度收缩了3.3%，下滑幅度大于去年第四季度的2.1%。德国主要经济研究机构周三说，德国经济今年将收缩6%，将是1931年以来记录的最糟糕表现。

根据IMF的数据，全球金融危机给欧洲银行带来的损失现在看来可能会超过美国银行，这可能会影响到欧洲银行自由放贷以支持欧洲经济走出危机的能力。IMF称，欧洲大陆银行超过半数的损失都是来自本地，主要受发放给欧洲公司和家庭的不良贷款影响，而不是因为美国问题证券。

欧盟27国经济前景恶化打击了该地区很多政府。此前这些政府声称美国是全球经济风暴的中心，而欧洲的问题较小。因为这个原因，再加上对通货膨胀上扬和国债增加的忧虑，很多欧洲国家政府在降息或是采取大规模财政刺激措施方面的行动速度一直慢于美国或亚洲主要经济体。

鉴于欧盟18.4万亿美元的经济总量占全球经济的30%，欧洲经济前景黯淡可能会影响到美国、亚洲和其他地区。

甚至欧洲公司也将希望寄托于其他投入更多资金刺激经济的地区。在总部位于慕尼黑的工程公司HAWE Hydraulik SE，老板霍伊斯根(Karl Haeusgen)现在指望美国和中国的复苏迹象能给公司带来新的出口订单。最近几个月，他公司的订单数较上年同期下滑了至多一半。

信用评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)周二预计，高风险欧洲公司的债券违约问题将赶上低评级美国公司的违约问题。

一些商业调查和经济数据显示，欧洲经济收缩的步伐或许正在放缓。但未来几个月欧洲经济的复苏迹象似乎弱于亚洲和美国等其他地区，经济学家称这些地区更大规模的政府刺激举措正开始显现一定成效。

亚洲经济的初步好转迹象包括了中国的工业产值和汽车销量，这两项数据3月份均出现了增长。日本也看到了一丝希望之光，日本3月份出口尽管较上年同期下滑近半，但较2月份有所增长，是去年5月以来首次出现月度增长。

一些分析师说，决策者要为欧元区经济的严重衰退负一部分责任。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)驻伦敦经济学家麦基说，想想整体的货币和财政政策组合举措，美国明显规模更大。

欧洲央行已将关键利率从去年10月的4.25%下调至1.25%，预计还将在5月进一步下调至1%。这个水平仍远高于美国和英国的相关利率。

很多欧洲国家政府在运用财政政策支持需求方面也都行动迟缓。

据IMF的数据，美国2008-2010年三年的财政刺激措施规模占去年国内生产总值(GDP)的4.8%，中国为4.4%，而德国、英国和法国的这一比例分别为3.4%、1.5%和1.3%。

欧洲银行业的疲软状况对整体经济的破坏很可能更甚于美国银行业危机的后果，因为欧洲金融体系对银行借贷的依赖程度更深，而不那么依赖证券市场。IMF说，虽然欧洲各家银行的资产负债规模超过美国借贷机构，这样它们的损失占总资产的比较就相对较小，但要修复它们的资金缓冲所需的新资金也比美国同行多。

IMF周二发布的一份报告称，除英国之外的西欧银行2007-2010年的冲销总额将达到1.109万亿美元，超过美国同期的1.049万亿美元。IMF说，欧元区银行迄今仅冲销了17%的损失，而美国银行业这一比例为50%；英国各家银行冲销了3,100亿美元预期损失中的三分之一左右。

各家银行为提振自身资本比率而实行的限制性借贷正在阻碍欧洲企业的发展。法国比赛用自行车生产商Look Cycle International SA首席执行长富尼埃(Thierry Fournier)说，公司的销售严重下滑，因为法国和意大利等地的自行车商店和经销商无法获得足够的资金。他说，经销商跟银行间出现了问题，所以大家都对定货或保持库存更加谨慎。

修复欧盟银行体系的任务尤其棘手，欧盟27个成员国有16个共用欧元货币和欧洲央行，但对银行业的监管基本上还是由各国政府负责。

布鲁塞尔智库机构Bruegel研究员贝隆(Nicolas Veron)说，在欧洲大陆，基本上不可能有协同一致的政策行动来确定银行业体系的薄弱环节。

由于东欧国家出现严重的经济和金融危机，欧洲经济进一步恶化的风险也比其他地区更高。以奥地利的银行为例，该国银行在东欧的敞口约2,780亿美元，相当于奥地利GDP的70%以上。

IMF预计，到2010年，欧洲大陆的银行在新兴市场资产方面的损失将达到1,720亿美元，是英国、美国或亚洲银行这方面预期损失的四倍以上。

Europe's economy faces a deeper recession and a slower recovery than the U.S. or other parts of the world, making it the region that is most hurting prospects for an early end to the global economic slump.

The EU's economy is set to contract 4% this year, even worse than the 2.8% drop projected for the U.S., according to new forecasts published Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund.

Those figures came as the U.K. released a budget that includes its biggest jump in the national debt since World War II. Germany, Europe's biggest economy, shrank by 3.3% in the first quarter -- a steep slide from a 2.1% contraction in the last quarter of 2008. Leading German economics institutes said Wednesday that the country's economy is set to contract 6% this year, which would be its worst recorded performance since 1931.

European banks' losses from the global financial crisis are now projected to overtake U.S. banks' losses, according to IMF figures, which could hurt the banks' ability to lend liberally to help the bloc out of its crisis. More than half of the losses on continental Europe are homemade, the IMF said, reflecting bad loans to European firms and households rather than toxic U.S. securities.

The worsening outlook for the 27-nation EU is a blow for many of the region's governments, who have argued that the U.S. is the center of the global economic storm and that Europe's problems are smaller. Because of that, plus fear of rising inflation and public debt, authorities in much of Europe have been slower than those in the U.S. or leading Asian economies to cut interest rates or adopt ambitious fiscal-stimulus measures.

Europe's poor prospects are likely to rebound on the U.S., Asia and other regions, given that the EU's $18.4 trillion economy makes up 30% of the world economy.

Even European firms' hopes are pinned on other regions where countries are spending more on stimulus plans. At Munich-based engineering firm HAWE Hydraulik SE, owner Karl Haeusgen is hoping that signs of life in the U.S. and China will lead to new export orders. In recent months, his orders have fallen as much as half from a year ago.

On Tuesday, credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's predicted that debt defaults among high-risk European companies would overtake defaults among low-rated U.S. companies.

Some business surveys and economic data suggest the pace of Europe's contraction might be easing. But signs of a recovery in coming months appear weaker than in other regions, such as Asia and the U.S., where economists say more aggressive government efforts are starting to show some effect.

Tentative signs of relief in Asia include Chinese factory output and auto sales, which improved in March. Japan is also seeing some glimmers of hope, as exports in March nearly halved from a year earlier but rose from February, the first monthly gain since May last year.

Policy makers are partly to blame for the severity of the euro zone's slowdown, say some analysts. 'When you think of the broader monetary and fiscal policy mix, it's clearly been more aggressive in the U.S.,' says David Mackie, economist at J.P. Morgan in London.

The European Central Bank cut its key interest rate to 1.25% from 4.25% in October, and is expected to trim the rate to 1% in May. That's still well above comparable rates in the U.S. and U.K.

Governments in Europe also have been slower to use fiscal policy to support demand.

Fiscal stimulus measures over a three-year period of 2008-2010 are equivalent to 4.8% of last year's gross domestic product in the U.S. and 4.4% in China, according to the IMF -- but only 3.4% in Germany, 1.5% in the U.K., and 1.3% in France.

The weakening of Europe's banking sector is potentially more damaging for the wider economy than woes at U.S. banks, because Europe's financial system relies more on bank lending and less on securities markets. Although Europe's banks have bigger balance sheets than U.S. lenders, so that their losses are smaller as a proportion of total assets, they will need more fresh money than the U.S. to repair their capital buffers, the IMF said.

An IMF report published Tuesday said that write-downs at Western European banks outside the U.K. will total $1.109 trillion for 2007-2010, topping the U.S. total of $1.049 trillion. Banks in the euro zone have so far written down only 17% of their losses, compared with roughly 50% at U.S. banks, the IMF said. U.K. banks have written down about a third of their $310 billion in expected losses, the report said.

Restrictive lending by banks trying to repair their capital ratios is holding back European businesses. At French racing-bicycle maker Look Cycle International SA, sales are suffering because the bicycle stores and distributors it deals with in markets including France and Italy can't get enough financing, says Look Chief Executive Thierry Fournier. 'Dealers and distributors have problems with their banks, so everybody is more cautious about placing orders or holding stocks,' he says.

Fixing the banking system is particularly tricky in the EU, where 16 of the 27 countries share the euro currency and a central bank, but where banking regulation mostly remains the preserve of the national governments.

'In Continental Europe, there is basically no prospect of any coordinated policy action to identify the weaknesses in the banking system,' says Nicolas Veron, a research fellow at Brussels think tank Bruegel.

Europe's economy also faces a greater risk of further deterioration than other regions because of the deep economic and financial crisis in the formerly communist East. Austria-based banks, for example, have some $278 billion in exposure to those countries, equivalent to over 70% of Austria's gross domestic product.

The IMF expects Continental European banks' losses on emerging-market assets to reach $172 billion by 2010, more than four times the emerging-market losses it expects for U.K., U.S. or Asian banks.


Marcus Walker / Joellen Perry